TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13143540
Played Sep 17Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161210511115––
Jiri Matus
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 71 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 57.3%
71 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 30–25 Jiri Matus Jiri Matus has won 25 of their 55 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-25 in 55
Sindler
Correct
gap of 5 in 55, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1456 vs Matus 1336
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Matus 60%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 80% vs Matus 50%
Sindler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +2 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Matus 2.00
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sindler)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13143540
Sindler1.73
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 129 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it90% 46 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it69% 83 of 120
Matus2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 23 of 49
Down 0–1, comes back30% 7 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back18% 2 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler7wins
AwayMatus3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler85.7%6 of 7
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler7Matus3n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S2Sindler6Matus4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S3Sindler5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S4Sindler5Matus3n = 8Sindler took 5 of 8
S5Sindler2Matus2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerMatusS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.437.2+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 793 vs 221 / 42952%51.5%412 / 793 vs 221 / 429Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Matus 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler3911125113J. Matus326101151
WSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler511011711123J. Matus43123117102
LSep 9 · 06:45J. Sindler4391111752J. Matus47119511113
WAug 28 · 08:10J. Sindler3811115113J. Matus28451181
WAug 26 · 08:45J. Sindler4415117113J. Matus391391161
WAug 26 · 08:10J. Sindler3913411113J. Matus351111671
WAug 13 · 06:40J. Sindler42114115113J. Matus4291171142
LAug 2 · 14:40J. Sindler531171112122J. Matus53911514143
WJul 26 · 13:45J. Sindler331111113J. Matus208390
LJul 24 · 12:55J. Sindler227870J. Matus331111113
J. Sindler10
WSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113WSep 17 · 06:10P. Chlad2.006111061J. Sindler1.7311612113LSep 16 · 13:20J. Sindler1.7363100M. Lorenc2.001111123WSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971LSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171WSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661
J. Matus10
WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 15 · 07:10J. Matus1.833411101A. Strelec1.8311119123LSep 15 · 05:40I. Jemelka1.531181413113J. Matus2.38811121592LSep 14 · 09:33J. Matus1.91111071172A. Strelec1.80212115113WSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102
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