TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13140325
Played Sep 16Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6113111012––––
Martin Lorenc
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Martin Lorenc below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 53 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 4–4 Martin Lorenc Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Sindler beat Lorenc 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1448 vs Lorenc 1500
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 80% vs Lorenc 60%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 90% vs Lorenc 70%
Sindler
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +4 · Lorenc +1
Sindler
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Lorenc 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13140325
Sindler1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 124 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it69% 81 of 118
Lorenc2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSindler4wins
AwayLorenc4wins
3 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler50%2 of 4
AwayLorenc50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly
S2Sindler4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly
S3Sindler4Lorenc4n = 8split evenly
S4Sindler5Lorenc3n = 8Sindler took 5 of 8
S5Sindler1Lorenc2n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away225%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSindlerLorencS − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match40.940.8+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerLorencBasisWin rate · lifetime409 / 789 vs 67 / 14751.8%45.6%409 / 789 vs 67 / 147Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.237.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Lorenc 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 10:45J. Sindler4211514123M. Lorenc3961112101
LSep 5 · 16:10J. Sindler331011571M. Lorenc4312911113
WAug 21 · 12:48J. Sindler4071111113M. Lorenc24112651
LAug 21 · 12:10J. Sindler4491212652M. Lorenc5311101011113
WAug 10 · 13:23J. Sindler3811115113M. Lorenc33981151
LAug 10 · 11:45J. Sindler4413881142M. Lorenc461111112113
LJul 24 · 14:40J. Sindler4111111091M. Lorenc4371312113
WJun 25 · 12:10J. Sindler45751111113M. Lorenc4511119862
J. Sindler10
WSep 16 · 12:15J. Sindler1.53111248113L. Jr2.38610111172WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971LSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171WSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661WSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181WSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113
M. Lorenc10
WSep 16 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.251111113L. Zustina1.577790LSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881LSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113WSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113
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