TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137452
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
61111512141012––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:57 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.9%
81 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 4–3 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:57What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1507 vs Sindler 1424
Lorenc
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Sindler 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 70% vs Sindler 90%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +1 · Sindler +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.83 / Sindler 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13137452
Lorenc1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Sindler1.83
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeLorenc4wins
AwaySindler3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderLorenc leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc50%2 of 4
AwaySindler33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc4Sindler3n = 7Lorenc took 4 of 7
S2Lorenc3Sindler4n = 7Sindler took 4 of 7
S3Lorenc4Sindler3n = 7Lorenc took 4 of 7
S4Lorenc3Sindler4n = 7Sindler took 4 of 7
S5Lorenc2Sindler1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricLorencSindlerL − SBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match41.040.7+0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 145 vs 407 / 78745.5%51.7%66 / 145 vs 407 / 787Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.83/Sindler 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc4312911113J. Sindler331011571
LAug 21 · 12:48M. Lorenc24112651J. Sindler4071111113
WAug 21 · 12:10M. Lorenc5311101011113J. Sindler4491212652
LAug 10 · 13:23M. Lorenc33981151J. Sindler3811115113
WAug 10 · 11:45M. Lorenc461111112113J. Sindler4413881142
WJul 24 · 14:40M. Lorenc4371312113J. Sindler4111111091
LJun 25 · 12:10M. Lorenc4511119862J. Sindler45751111113
M. Lorenc10
WSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881LSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113WSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113
J. Sindler10
WSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971LSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171WSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661WSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181WSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Sindler1.7311911123P. Sturma2.007117101WSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113
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