TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127438
Played Sep 14Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111171210––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 53–51 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 51 of their 104 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Sindler beat Sturma 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:05What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-51 in 104
Sindler
Correct
gap of 2 in 104, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1397 vs Sturma 1338
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 60% vs Sturma 40%
Sindler
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 60% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +1 · Sturma -3
Sturma
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.73 / Sturma 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Sindler)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13127438
Sindler1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 119 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 77 of 114
Sturma2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 124 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back42% 52 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwaySturma4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler66.7%4 of 6
AwaySturma50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler6Sturma4n = 10Sindler took 6 of 10
S2Sindler4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Sindler5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Sindler5Sturma3n = 8Sindler took 5 of 8
S5Sindler2Sturma1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerSturmaSindler − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.237.2+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime399 / 778 vs 417 / 85651.3%48.7%399 / 778 vs 417 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.73/Sturma 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler257990P. Sturma331111113
WSep 11 · 10:15J. Sindler4071111113P. Sturma33118861
WSep 11 · 06:15J. Sindler50118911113P. Sturma3841111662
WSep 8 · 09:29J. Sindler4112711113P. Sturma261011501
LSep 8 · 07:45J. Sindler31118481P. Sturma4181111113
WAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler331111113P. Sturma219930
LAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler38913971P. Sturma44111111113
WAug 26 · 10:10J. Sindler48116812113P. Sturma46711111072
WAug 14 · 13:14J. Sindler47121113113P. Sturma381441191
LAug 14 · 09:45J. Sindler4911813892P. Sturma528111111113
J. Sindler10
WSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102LSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler1.837990P. Sturma1.831111113WSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113WSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113WSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113WSep 11 · 13:20Z. Chovancik1.771970J. Sindler1.871111113LSep 11 · 12:15J. Sindler1.8011660Z. Chovancik1.911311113
P. Sturma10
LSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692LSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113WSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler1.837990P. Sturma1.831111113WSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113
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