TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127027
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111210411116119
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 88 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 47–29 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 29 of their 76 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:45What took a side0 for · 5 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
47-29 in 76
Jr
Correct
gap of 18 in 76, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1392 vs Sturma 1334
Jr
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Sturma 20%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Sturma 50%
Jr
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +3 · Sturma -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Jr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.67 / Sturma 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Jr)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13127027
Jr1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 78 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it76% 53 of 70
Sturma2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog50% won 124 of 247
Down 0–1, comes back42% 52 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr7wins
AwaySturma3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJrn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySturma37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S2Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S3Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S4Jr7Sturma3n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S5Jr2Sturma1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSturmaJ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match40.133.8+6.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 449 vs 417 / 85853.2%48.6%239 / 449 vs 417 / 858Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JrJr 1.67/Sturma 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Jr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr41312411113P. Sturma47111011692
LSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr4371111772P. Sturma39112411113
WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr4291111113P. Sturma32117861
LSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr27731161P. Sturma3811115113
WAug 29 · 20:40L. Jr4411913113P. Sturma306111121
LAug 29 · 20:10L. Jr31711941P. Sturma3711411113
WAug 22 · 07:40L. Jr46131111113P. Sturma27152911
WAug 11 · 10:45L. Jr3961111113P. Sturma24113371
WAug 5 · 11:45L. Jr45113911113P. Sturma3521111562
WJul 29 · 18:15L. Jr43101111113P. Sturma29128361
L. Jr10
WSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101WSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Jr1.8511911123WSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123WSep 9 · 13:15J. Sindler1.6541191162L. Jr2.03114118113
P. Sturma10
LSep 14 · 10:10J. Sindler1.7311911123P. Sturma2.007117101LSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 08:10J. Matus1.838201111113P. Sturma1.83111871392LSep 14 · 07:10P. Sturma2.3811118942A. Strelec1.53681111113WSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler1.837990P. Sturma1.831111113WSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 19:45I. Jemelka1.6721111392P. Sturma2.10118811113LSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 18:15P. Sturma1.6711511113J. Jnr2.10611781WSep 12 · 17:15J. Jnr2.00149561P. Sturma1.73121111113
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