TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13127128
Played Sep 14Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
611511119611––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:25 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 70 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 59.3%
70 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 19–19 Jaroslav Sindler Dead even across their 38 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:25What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-19 in 38
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1381 vs Sindler 1416
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 80% vs Sindler 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 70% vs Sindler 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +4 · Sindler +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.25 / Sindler 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Sindler)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13127128
Jr2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 80 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Sindler1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite51% won 119 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it89% 42 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it68% 77 of 114
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwaySindler6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr66.7%4 of 6
AwaySindler100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr6Sindler4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S2Jr3Sindler7n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S3Jr6Sindler4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S4Jr2Sindler8n = 10Sindler took 8 of 10
S5Jr3Sindler2n = 5Jr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSindlerJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.542.1−3.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 450 vs 402 / 78153.1%51.5%239 / 450 vs 402 / 781Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerJr 2.25/Sindler 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr28651161J. Sindler4211119113
WSep 9 · 13:15L. Jr45114118113J. Sindler4141191162
LSep 9 · 12:15L. Jr29761151J. Sindler4111118113
WAug 11 · 11:45L. Jr48117811113J. Sindler3961111742
LJul 29 · 14:45L. Jr23116511J. Sindler4291111113
LJul 16 · 13:15L. Jr51111181292J. Sindler54991114113
LJul 16 · 11:15L. Jr4111111992J. Sindler45117511113
WJul 11 · 09:40L. Jr47111186113J. Sindler4476111192
LJul 10 · 12:40L. Jr30831181J. Sindler3711114113
WJul 10 · 09:40L. Jr43111011113J. Sindler36912871
L. Jr10
WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692WSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101WSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Jr1.8511911123WSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113WSep 12 · 19:15L. Jr1.6191111113P. Sturma2.20117861WSep 12 · 17:45I. Jemelka1.44111125102L. Jr2.63891111123
J. Sindler10
WSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Sindler1.7311911123P. Sturma2.007117101WSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113LSep 14 · 07:40J. Sindler1.737990A. Strelec2.001111113WSep 14 · 06:40J. Sindler1.731011711123J. Matus2.00123117102LSep 14 · 05:40J. Sindler1.837990P. Sturma1.831111113WSep 13 · 09:15D. Stefek1.80714101392J. Sindler1.9111121211113WSep 13 · 07:45T. Ogrocki1.7314811932J. Sindler2.001211911113WSep 13 · 07:15R. Jancak2.509670J. Sindler1.501111113LSep 13 · 06:15J. Sindler1.9110550D. Stefek1.801211113
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