TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137448
Played Sep 16Finished
Lukas Zustina
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811611119911––
Jaroslav Sindler
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:58 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Zustina above · Jaroslav Sindler below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 58.1%
76 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Zustina 5–3 Jaroslav Sindler Jaroslav Sindler has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Zustina
Wrong
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zustina 1322 vs Sindler 1431
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 109 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zustina 20% vs Sindler 100%
Sindler
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zustina 40% vs Sindler 90%
Sindler
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zustina -3 · Sindler +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Sindler) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sindler form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZustina 2.25 / Sindler 1.57
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Sindler)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13137448
Zustina2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog60% won 12 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back36% 4 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back20% 1 of 5
Sindler1.57
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 124 of 236
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it69% 81 of 118
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeZustina5wins
AwaySindler3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderZustina leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZustina83.3%5 of 6
AwaySindlern = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zustina6Sindler2n = 8Zustina took 6 of 8
S2Zustina5Sindler3n = 8Zustina took 5 of 8
S3Zustina4Sindler4n = 8split evenly
S4Zustina2Sindler3n = 5Sindler took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricZustinaSindlerZ − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match38.637.6+1.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZustinaSindlerBasisWin rate · lifetime49 / 105 vs 406 / 78646.7%51.7%49 / 105 vs 406 / 786Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.740.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerZustina 2.25/Sindler 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.3%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina4011117113J. Sindler34791171
LSep 9 · 10:15L. Zustina3012990J. Sindler361411113
LSep 3 · 10:45L. Zustina43112117122J. Sindler53911811143
WJul 30 · 14:10L. Zustina48111178113J. Sindler4389111142
LJul 30 · 11:40L. Zustina31381191J. Sindler4111118113
WMar 4 · 14:10L. Zustina4413118123J. Sindler3611411101
WMar 4 · 12:40L. Zustina401111183J. Sindler3297160
WDec 4 · 09:15L. Zustina331111113J. Sindler268990
L. Zustina10
LSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770WSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171LSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113WSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 16:15L. Zustina1.9191150O. Vaclahovsky1.801113113WSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113LSep 9 · 14:15R. Benesz2.0051211113L. Zustina1.731110971WSep 9 · 12:44L. Zustina2.1061411133J. Sevecek1.6711129111
J. Sindler10
WSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 09:20J. Sindler1.36101111113R. Zajac3.00124971LSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171WSep 16 · 07:15R. Zajac2.631147121J. Sindler1.4491111143WSep 16 · 06:15J. Sindler1.6171111113L. Snr2.20118661WSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181WSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 11:10P. Chvojka2.10121111892J. Sindler1.67148911113WSep 14 · 10:10J. Sindler1.7311911123P. Sturma2.007117101WSep 14 · 09:05P. Sturma2.0011741112J. Sindler1.73711119113
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