TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13136811
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115118118––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 55.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 3–0 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Lorenc
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1499 vs Jr 1370
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 80% vs Jr 60%
Lorenc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 70% vs Jr 50%
Lorenc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc -1 · Jr -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Lorenc) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.44 / Jr 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Lorenc)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13136811
Lorenc1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 23 of 46
Up 2–0, closes it100% 7 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it70% 14 of 20
Jr2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 80 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back38% 26 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLorenc3wins
AwayJr0wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLorenc leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc1Jr2n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S2Lorenc2Jr1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S3Lorenc2Jr1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S4Lorenc3Jr0n = 3Lorenc took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricLorencJrL − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match43.338.7+4.6per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencJrBasisWin rate · lifetime65 / 144 vs 239 / 45145.1%53%65 / 144 vs 239 / 451Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.440.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.44/Jr 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 28 · 13:40M. Lorenc51812911113L. Jr47111011782
WJul 28 · 17:08M. Lorenc3851111113L. Jr38119991
WJul 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc4111613113L. Jr313111161
M. Lorenc10
LSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123LSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113WSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113
L. Jr10
LSep 14 · 13:04J. Sindler1.5013119113L. Jr2.501141181LSep 14 · 11:40L. Jr2.25651161J. Sindler1.5711119113WSep 14 · 10:40L. Jr1.67312411113P. Sturma2.10111011692WSep 14 · 09:40L. Jr2.0071114123P. Chvojka1.7311912101WSep 13 · 21:23J. Oleksik1.859112101L. Jr1.8511911123WSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 19:15J. Matus1.73116115113L. Jr2.0081151192LSep 13 · 18:15L. Jr1.83111111592J. Oleksik1.83813911113LSep 12 · 21:19L. Jr1.5771111772P. Sturma2.25112411113WSep 12 · 20:15J. Jnr1.91101171192L. Jr1.80127116113
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