TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13137432
Played Sep 16Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:48 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Zustina to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Zustina at 54.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 1–2 Lukas Zustina Martin Lorenc has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 22:48What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1492 vs Zustina 1317
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 60% vs Zustina 20%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 70% vs Zustina 30%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc -1 · Zustina -3
Zustina
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zustina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 2.25 / Zustina 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Zustina)-4.4pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13137432
Lorenc2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 15 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Zustina1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite34% won 11 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it47% 7 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLorenc1wins
AwayZustina2wins
Zustina leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc2Zustina1n = 3Lorenc took 2 of 3
S2Lorenc1Zustina2n = 3Zustina took 2 of 3
S3Lorenc1Zustina2n = 3Zustina took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLorencZustinaL − ZBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match31.333.7−2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime66 / 146 vs 50 / 10845.2%46.3%66 / 146 vs 50 / 108Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 2.25/Zustina 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc2615650L. Zustina391711113
LJul 9 · 12:15M. Lorenc33118771L. Zustina4071111113
WJun 9 · 10:45M. Lorenc351311113L. Zustina2211380
M. Lorenc10
LSep 16 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.8361112101J. Sindler1.8311514123WSep 16 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.44111111113L. Jr2.63135881LSep 15 · 17:09M. Lorenc1.6151171192T. Ogrocki2.20116113113WSep 15 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.80111111113T. Ogrocki1.91138971WSep 15 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.8091111113P. Chlad1.91117391WSep 15 · 13:40M. Lorenc1.6111911143R. Benesz2.204119121WSep 9 · 17:15M. Lorenc1.85129119113O. Vaclahovsky1.85101171182WSep 9 · 15:45M. Lorenc1.80117116113R. Benesz1.9161161172LSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113WSep 9 · 13:45M. Lorenc1.801191211123O. Vaclahovsky1.91511149102
L. Zustina10
LSep 16 · 11:15L. Jr1.73111111113L. Zustina2.00139571LSep 16 · 10:15L. Zustina2.25861191J. Sindler1.5711119113LSep 16 · 08:50L. Snr1.571111113L. Zustina2.253770WSep 16 · 07:45L. Zustina2.2511117113J. Sindler1.57791171LSep 16 · 06:45L. Zustina1.834970L. Snr1.831111113LSep 16 · 05:45L. Zustina1.6710770R. Zajac2.101211113WSep 9 · 16:45R. Benesz1.733960L. Zustina1.981111113LSep 9 · 16:15L. Zustina1.9191150O. Vaclahovsky1.801113113WSep 9 · 14:45M. Lorenc1.8015650L. Zustina1.911711113LSep 9 · 14:15R. Benesz2.0051211113L. Zustina1.731110971
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