TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148726
Played Sep 17Finished
Miroslav Dolezal
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113811114113––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 67.1% is still 67.1%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Dolezal to win
67.1%
67.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Dolezal above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 62 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Miroslav Dolezal at 67.1%
62 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Dolezal 2–0 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Dolezal beat Jokiel 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dolezal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Dolezal 1233 vs Jokiel 1226
Dolezal
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dolezal 20% vs Jokiel 0%
Dolezal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dolezal 40% vs Jokiel 0%
Dolezal
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dolezal -2 · Jokiel -5
Jokiel
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dolezal) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jokiel form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDolezal 1.80 / Jokiel 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dolezal)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13148726
Dolezal1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Jokiel1.91
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest0%takes the first set · 0 of 10
As underdog48% won 73 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back38% 26 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeDolezal2wins
AwayJokiel0wins
Dolezal leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricDolezalJokielD − JBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match42.025.0+17.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDolezalJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 48 vs 203 / 44545.8%45.6%22 / 48 vs 203 / 445Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match34.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DolezalDolezal 1.80/Jokiel 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dolezal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dolezal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 17 · 20:40M. Dolezal4111811113P. Jokiel21311431
WSep 17 · 17:40M. Dolezal43111110113P. Jokiel29381261
M. Dolezal10
LSep 17 · 20:10R. Benesz1.8371411113M. Dolezal1.831112251LSep 17 · 19:10M. Dolezal2.10912991T. Ogrocki1.67111011113WSep 17 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.73381261M. Dolezal2.00111110113LSep 13 · 20:55J. Matus1.731112113M. Dolezal2.0081030LSep 13 · 19:45M. Dolezal1.53105100L. Jr2.381211123LSep 13 · 18:45M. Dolezal1.835620J. Oleksik1.831111113WSep 13 · 17:45M. Dolezal2.2011119113J. Matus1.61921171WSep 6 · 21:20J. Oleksik1.5771191272M. Dolezal2.251171110113LSep 6 · 20:15M. Dolezal2.0087111132J. Oleksik1.73111174113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 17 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.107101151T. Ogrocki1.6711127113LSep 17 · 18:40P. Jokiel1.61751131R. Benesz2.2011119113LSep 17 · 17:40P. Jokiel1.73381261M. Dolezal2.00111110113LSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 07:40P. Jokiel2.2581111662P. Chlad1.57118811113LSep 17 · 06:40P. Jokiel1.838470J. Sindler1.831111113LSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113LSep 16 · 20:34J. Vanous1.801111113P. Jokiel1.917370LSep 16 · 20:10P. Jokiel1.8010370J. Vanous1.911211113LSep 16 · 18:40K. Zeman1.91111111113P. Jokiel1.80671371
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