TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119115––––
Daniel Kouble
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Daniel Kouble below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5
55 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 0–1 Daniel Kouble Jan Trefny has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Kouble beat Trefny 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kouble)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kouble form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 2.25 / Kouble 1.57
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Trefny)+4.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13162788
Trefny2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 25 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Kouble1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 14 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTrefny0wins
AwayKouble1wins
Kouble leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTrefnyKoubleT − KBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match36.041.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyKoubleBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 120 vs 104 / 21751.7%47.9%62 / 120 vs 104 / 217Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubleTrefny 2.25/Kouble 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Kouble · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 19 · 22:30J. Trefny369115111D. Kouble4111611133
J. Trefny10
WSep 20 · 02:00J. Trefny1.7311411143J. Prokupek2.009117121WSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141WSep 20 · 24:00P. Budinsky1.61111111482J. Trefny2.20813911113LSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111WSep 19 · 17:32J. Trefny1.6720514113Y. Holovatiuk2.0918111291WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113
D. Kouble10
LSep 20 · 01:30D. Kouble1.8011951182P. Budinsky1.91911117113WSep 20 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.205750D. Kouble1.611111113LSep 19 · 23:30R. Pavelka2.201411113D. Kouble1.6112540WSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111LSep 10 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke1.8311611113D. Kouble1.83811481WSep 10 · 24:30D. Kouble1.7313811113V. Cermak2.001111781LSep 9 · 23:00D. Kouble2.63861241J. Hradecky1.44111110113LSep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.201211113D. Kouble1.6110560WSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113LSep 8 · 01:30D. Kouble1.83112121112J. Dedek1.83811147113
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