TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13153996
Played Sep 20Finished
Jan Trefny
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1194111171412––
Jaroslav Prokupek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:13 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJan Trefny to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Trefny above · Jaroslav Prokupek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 79 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Jan Trefny at 54.9%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Trefny 4–2 Jaroslav Prokupek Jaroslav Prokupek has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Trefny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Trefny
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trefny 1658 vs Prokupek 1490
Trefny
Correct
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trefny 80% vs Prokupek 40%
Trefny
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trefny 70% vs Prokupek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Trefny +2 · Prokupek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Trefny) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trefny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrefny 1.73 / Prokupek 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Trefny)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13153996
Trefny1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 24 of 51
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it75% 15 of 20
Prokupek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 91 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTrefny4wins
AwayProkupek2wins
1 of 6 to a deciderTrefny leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrefny66.7%2 of 3
AwayProkupek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trefny3Prokupek3n = 6split evenly
S2Trefny3Prokupek3n = 6split evenly
S3Trefny4Prokupek2n = 6Trefny took 4 of 6
S4Trefny2Prokupek2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricTrefnyProkupekT − PBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match35.035.7−0.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrefnyProkupekBasisWin rate · lifetime62 / 120 vs 667 / 139851.7%47.7%62 / 120 vs 667 / 1398Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrefnyTrefny 1.73/Prokupek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.7%
Trefny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trefny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 20 · 02:00J. Trefny4011411143J. Prokupek399117121
LSep 7 · 08:30J. Trefny197930J. Prokupek331111113
LSep 6 · 19:00J. Trefny29117741J. Prokupek4181111113
WSep 4 · 24:30J. Trefny331111113J. Prokupek238960
WAug 25 · 23:00J. Trefny3951111123J. Prokupek351186101
WAug 18 · 08:30J. Trefny50712119113J. Prokupek43111061152
J. Trefny10
WSep 20 · 01:00J. Trefny1.9111116113R. Pavelka1.80481141WSep 20 · 24:00P. Budinsky1.61111111482J. Trefny2.20813911113LSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111WSep 19 · 17:32J. Trefny1.6720514113Y. Holovatiuk2.0918111291WSep 19 · 16:00J. Trefny1.801111113Y. Holovatiuk1.917780WSep 19 · 15:30K. Novak2.2559111282J. Trefny1.571111910113WSep 19 · 14:00J. Trefny2.100101111113P. Budinsky1.6711129862LSep 9 · 02:58J. Trefny1.80611791R. Pavelka1.9111411113LSep 9 · 01:30J. Trefny3.5011291152R. Krejci1.28711119113WSep 9 · 24:30V. Postelt2.00101190J. Trefny1.731213113
J. Prokupek10
LSep 20 · 03:00R. Pavelka1.7391111143J. Prokupek2.001158121LSep 20 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.205750D. Kouble1.611111113WSep 19 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.501112113P. Budinsky1.5071060WSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123LSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152LSep 18 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91115671J. Dedek1.8071111113WSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 15 · 20:58L. Krok2.107770J. Prokupek1.671111113WSep 15 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.006117111J. Prokupek1.7311911133
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.