TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13154201
Played Sep 20Finished
Jaroslav Prokupek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711511––––
Daniel Kouble
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:43 and never touched — 56.7% is still 56.7%
Graded at full timeDaniel Kouble to win
56.7%
56.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Prokupek above · Daniel Kouble below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 50 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Daniel Kouble at 56.7%
50 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Prokupek 5–14 Daniel Kouble Jaroslav Prokupek has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:43What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kouble
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-14 in 19
Kouble
Correct
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prokupek 1511 vs Kouble 1520
Kouble
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prokupek 60% vs Kouble 40%
Prokupek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prokupek 60% vs Kouble 40%
Prokupek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prokupek +2 · Kouble -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kouble) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kouble form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsProkupek 2.20 / Kouble 1.61
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Prokupek)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13154201
Prokupek2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 91 of 229
Down 0–1, comes back16% 18 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 71
Kouble1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 14 of 27
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeProkupek3wins
AwayKouble7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKouble leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeProkupek25%1 of 4
AwayKouble66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prokupek4Kouble6n = 10Kouble took 6 of 10
S2Prokupek3Kouble7n = 10Kouble took 7 of 10
S3Prokupek4Kouble6n = 10Kouble took 6 of 10
S4Prokupek1Kouble7n = 8Kouble took 7 of 8
S5Prokupek3Kouble1n = 4Prokupek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricProkupekKoubleP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.841.2−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricProkupekKoubleBasisWin rate · lifetime667 / 1397 vs 104 / 21647.8%48.2%667 / 1397 vs 104 / 216Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KoubleProkupek 2.20/Kouble 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.1%
Kouble · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kouble won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 24:30J. Prokupek175750D. Kouble331111113
LSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek31145661D. Kouble45121111113
WSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek53118119143D. Kouble50911711122
LMay 12 · 23:00J. Prokupek31116591D. Kouble4291111113
LApr 15 · 03:00J. Prokupek206680D. Kouble331111113
WApr 15 · 02:00J. Prokupek44411117113D. Kouble4311591172
LFeb 26 · 22:30J. Prokupek36911971D. Kouble3811511113
LFeb 26 · 19:00J. Prokupek36971191D. Kouble4011117113
WFeb 3 · 01:30J. Prokupek46611711113D. Kouble4411911942
LDec 23 · 03:30J. Prokupek4411911762D. Kouble44711411113
J. Prokupek10
WSep 19 · 23:00J. Prokupek2.501112113P. Budinsky1.5071060WSep 19 · 22:00R. Pavelka1.611165101J. Prokupek2.2061111123LSep 18 · 21:29R. Pavelka1.73116118113J. Prokupek2.0051121152LSep 18 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.91115671J. Dedek1.8071111113WSep 18 · 19:00J. Prokupek2.25881111113P. Budinsky1.5711117882WSep 18 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.73111141192J. Prokupek2.00139117113WSep 15 · 20:58L. Krok2.107770J. Prokupek1.671111113WSep 15 · 20:30Y. Holovatiuk2.006117111J. Prokupek1.7311911133LSep 15 · 19:30J. Prokupek1.539370K. Darin2.381111113LSep 15 · 18:30L. Krok2.3851111113J. Prokupek1.53119761
D. Kouble10
LSep 20 · 01:30D. Kouble1.8011951182P. Budinsky1.91911117113LSep 19 · 23:30R. Pavelka2.201411113D. Kouble1.6112540WSep 19 · 22:30D. Kouble1.6711611133J. Trefny2.109115111LSep 10 · 02:00A. Hlawatschke1.8311611113D. Kouble1.83811481WSep 10 · 24:30D. Kouble1.7313811113V. Cermak2.001111781LSep 9 · 23:00D. Kouble2.63861241J. Hradecky1.44111110113LSep 9 · 22:00M. Vedmoch2.201211113D. Kouble1.6110560WSep 8 · 03:30J. Prokupek2.25145661D. Kouble1.57121111113LSep 8 · 01:30D. Kouble1.83112121112J. Dedek1.83811147113LSep 8 · 24:30J. Prokupek2.25118119143D. Kouble1.57911711122
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