TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
1.65
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 0
Set by set
114108––––––
Serhii Kovalenko
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Serhii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-8
Point 33 set 2, 10-8 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 57.7%
33 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 1–2 Serhii Kovalenko Oleh Stopin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:06What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Stopin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1192 vs Kovalenko 1179
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 40% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 50% vs Kovalenko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin -1 · Kovalenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Stopin) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (40%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.65 / Kovalenko 2.05
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Stopin)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13161885
Stopin1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 51 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Kovalenko2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStopin1wins
AwayKovalenko2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderKovalenko leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin2Kovalenko1n = 3Stopin took 2 of 3
S2Stopin1Kovalenko2n = 3Kovalenko took 2 of 3
S3Stopin2Kovalenko1n = 3Stopin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away267%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStopinKovalenkoS − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match41.533.5+8.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 276 vs 29 / 6952.5%42%145 / 276 vs 29 / 69Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinStopin 1.65/Kovalenko 2.05
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–0
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 15 · 19:00O. Stopin331111113S. Kovalenko186480
LApr 26 · 10:05O. Stopin50119911102S. Kovalenko49711118123
O. Stopin10
LSep 20 · 13:10O. Stopin3.001174111V. Kondratenko1.3671111133WSep 20 · 11:10O. Stopin1.501111113V. Mykhalchenko2.507360LSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153LSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111WSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821
S. Kovalenko10
LSep 20 · 12:40Y. Korotin1.50118118143S. Kovalenko2.50511711122WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870LJul 16 · 10:05S. Kovalenko2.206650S. Skhabitskiy1.611111113LJul 16 · 09:05S. Kovalenko2.0061161252K. Klymenko1.731171110113
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