TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Aug 22Finished
Serhii Kovalenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 6
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119117711611115
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kovalenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Kovalenko above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 89 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Serhii Kovalenko at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kovalenko 1–0 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:24What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kovalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1164 vs Mykhalchenko 1113
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 0% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Mykhalchenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 10% vs Mykhalchenko 40%
Mykhalchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko -5 · Mykhalchenko -2
Kovalenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.80 / Mykhalchenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kovalenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12472222
Kovalenko1.80
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite50% won 8 of 16
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Mykhalchenko1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 12 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKovalenko1wins
AwayMykhalchenko0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKovalenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKovalenkoMykhalchenkoK − MBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match46.043.0+3.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 67 vs 139 / 24741.8%56.3%28 / 67 vs 139 / 247Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.80/Mykhalchenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko46111176113V. Mykhalchenko4397111152
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870LJul 16 · 10:05S. Kovalenko2.206650S. Skhabitskiy1.611111113LJul 16 · 09:05S. Kovalenko2.0061161252K. Klymenko1.731171110113LJul 16 · 07:35S. Kovalenko1.8311118452M. Khalenko1.83891111113LJul 16 · 05:35S. Kovalenko1.83121211462D. Novakov1.831410811113
V. Mykhalchenko10
LSep 20 · 12:10V. Varchenko1.2511613113V. Mykhalchenko3.758111111LSep 20 · 11:10O. Stopin1.501111113V. Mykhalchenko2.507360WSep 19 · 10:50V. Mykhalchenko2.201311114113V. Kucheriavyi1.6115341192LSep 19 · 09:50V. Mykhalchenko1.446870D. Khavanskyi2.631111113WSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580LSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko1.67613391V. Mykhalchenko2.10111111113WSep 12 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0891111113S. Kuzko7.00118791WSep 12 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.2871111133D. Kunchurov3.501166111WSep 12 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.051115113M. Mykhailenko8.5051350
Upcoming Matches
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