TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Aug 22Finished
Serhii Kovalenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1145111412711911
Maksym Tkalich
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:28 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Kovalenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Kovalenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Kovalenko at 58.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Kovalenko 1–1 Maksym Tkalich Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:28What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kovalenko 1164 vs Tkalich 1037
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 127 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kovalenko 40% vs Tkalich 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kovalenko 30% vs Tkalich 60%
Tkalich
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kovalenko +2 · Tkalich -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Kovalenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKovalenko 1.57 / Tkalich 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Kovalenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472084
Kovalenko1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite42% won 5 of 12
Tkalich2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 30 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back18% 7 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKovalenko1wins
AwayTkalich1wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKovalenkoTkalichK − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match45.545.0+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKovalenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 67 vs 120 / 25641.8%46.9%28 / 67 vs 120 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KovalenkoKovalenko 1.57/Tkalich 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Kovalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tkalich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko4611514792M. Tkalich494111211113
WJun 27 · 08:35S. Kovalenko45611611113M. Tkalich4111611942
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870LJul 16 · 10:05S. Kovalenko2.206650S. Skhabitskiy1.611111113LJul 16 · 09:05S. Kovalenko2.0061161252K. Klymenko1.731171110113LJul 16 · 07:35S. Kovalenko1.8311118452M. Khalenko1.83891111113LJul 16 · 05:35S. Kovalenko1.83121211462D. Novakov1.831410811113
M. Tkalich10
LSep 12 · 11:30S. Kuzko2.5081111113M. Tkalich1.50111891LSep 12 · 10:00M. Tkalich2.108760D. Kunchurov1.671111113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.001112117113M. Tkalich1.1491481182LSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780LSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113
Upcoming Matches
S. Kovalenko
M. Tkalich
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