TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811711112511––
Serhii Kovalenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:35 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Varchenko to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Serhii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 66 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Volodymyr Varchenko at 60.1%
66 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 5–2 Serhii Kovalenko Serhii Kovalenko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:35What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Varchenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Varchenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1170 vs Kovalenko 1176
Kovalenko
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 40% vs Kovalenko 60%
Kovalenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 60% vs Kovalenko 30%
Varchenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko +1 · Kovalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Varchenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 1.57 / Kovalenko 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Varchenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161258
Varchenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite47% won 23 of 49
Up 2–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it66% 19 of 29
Kovalenko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 29 days ago (Aug 22) · back after a break
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVarchenko5wins
AwayKovalenko2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderVarchenko leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko80%4 of 5
AwayKovalenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko5Kovalenko2n = 7Varchenko took 5 of 7
S2Varchenko3Kovalenko4n = 7Kovalenko took 4 of 7
S3Varchenko4Kovalenko3n = 7Varchenko took 4 of 7
S4Varchenko5Kovalenko2n = 7Varchenko took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home457%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVarchenkoKovalenkoV − KBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match41.636.7+4.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 222 vs 28 / 6745.5%41.8%101 / 222 vs 28 / 67Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VarchenkoVarchenko 1.57/Kovalenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Varchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kovalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 15 · 15:30V. Varchenko4211119113S. Kovalenko27941131
WApr 26 · 06:05V. Varchenko4411511173S. Kovalenko399114151
LMar 22 · 17:40V. Varchenko4211611682S. Kovalenko49811811113
LJan 10 · 07:05V. Varchenko31711581S. Kovalenko3611311113
WDec 28 · 16:10V. Varchenko51611914113S. Kovalenko48116111282
WDec 2 · 14:10V. Varchenko4011711113S. Kovalenko35811881
WNov 15 · 10:30V. Varchenko4111811113S. Kovalenko23611151
V. Varchenko10
WSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 11:20V. Varchenko1.6111550D. Khavanskyi2.201311113LSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113WSep 13 · 10:05V. Varchenko2.63441211133S. Semenets1.441111104112WSep 13 · 09:05V. Varchenko1.911111113D. Khavanskyi1.804540WSep 13 · 07:35V. Varchenko2.381191311113V. Kucheriavyi1.53411111382LSep 13 · 05:35V. Varchenko2.20127981M. Khalenko1.61101111113
S. Kovalenko10
WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 10:20O. Ponomarenko1.8311511113S. Kovalenko1.83711691LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870LJul 16 · 10:05S. Kovalenko2.206650S. Skhabitskiy1.611111113LJul 16 · 09:05S. Kovalenko2.0061161252K. Klymenko1.731171110113LJul 16 · 07:35S. Kovalenko1.8311118452M. Khalenko1.83891111113LJul 16 · 05:35S. Kovalenko1.83121211462D. Novakov1.831410811113
Upcoming Matches
V. Varchenko
S. Kovalenko
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