TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Aug 22Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117511116119––
Serhii Kovalenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Serhii Kovalenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 71 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 54.0%
71 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 1–0 Serhii Kovalenko Serhii Kovalenko has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kovalenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1140 vs Kovalenko 1174
Kovalenko
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kovalenko 40%
Ponomarenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 100% vs Kovalenko 30%
Ponomarenko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +5 · Kovalenko -1
Ponomarenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kovalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.83 / Kovalenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12472146
Ponomarenko1.83
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
Kovalenko1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomePonomarenko1wins
AwayKovalenko0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoP − KBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match49.048.0+1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKovalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 644 vs 27 / 6547.2%41.5%304 / 644 vs 27 / 65Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.83/Kovalenko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WJul 15 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko49118611133S. Kovalenko48911116112
O. Ponomarenko10
LSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko1.67613391V. Mykhalchenko2.10111111113LSep 12 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.179650M. Mykhailenko4.501111113LSep 12 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.08117091S. Kuzko7.0071111113WSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.44101111113D. Kunchurov2.63126871LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113
S. Kovalenko10
WSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WAug 22 · 12:20S. Kovalenko1.3611125113K. Vernudin3.006101161LAug 22 · 09:20S. Kovalenko1.5711514792M. Tkalich2.254111211113WAug 22 · 08:20D. Kunchurov2.388790S. Kovalenko1.531111113WAug 22 · 06:50S. Kovalenko1.80111176113V. Mykhalchenko1.9197111152LJul 16 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331111113S. Kovalenko3.259870LJul 16 · 10:05S. Kovalenko2.206650S. Skhabitskiy1.611111113LJul 16 · 09:05S. Kovalenko2.0061161252K. Klymenko1.731171110113LJul 16 · 07:35S. Kovalenko1.8311118452M. Khalenko1.83891111113LJul 16 · 05:35S. Kovalenko1.83121211462D. Novakov1.831410811113
Upcoming Matches
O. Ponomarenko
Nothing scheduled
S. Kovalenko
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