TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116988
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611511––––
Mykhailo Mykhailenko
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:19 and never touched — 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Mykhailo Mykhailenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 53 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 83.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 8–1 Mykhailo Mykhailenko Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:19What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-1 in 9
Ponomarenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1021 vs Mykhailenko 777
Ponomarenko
Wrong
both rated, 244 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 60% vs Mykhailenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Mykhailenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Mykhailenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhailenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.17 / Mykhailenko 4.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116988
Ponomarenko1.17
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 83 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Mykhailenko4.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 19 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePonomarenko8wins
AwayMykhailenko1wins
1 of 9 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 8–1, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%7 of 7
AwayMykhailenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko7Mykhailenko2n = 9Ponomarenko took 7 of 9
S2Ponomarenko8Mykhailenko1n = 9Ponomarenko took 8 of 9
S3Ponomarenko7Mykhailenko2n = 9Ponomarenko took 7 of 9
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home778%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMykhailenkoP − MBasisWins81+7in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match34.025.4+8.6per matchSweeps71+63–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMykhailenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 649 vs 23 / 9146.4%25.3%301 / 649 vs 23 / 91Avg sets wonper match1.91.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.331.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.17/Mykhailenko 4.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mykhailenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 23 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko—4990M. Mykhailenko—1111113
WAug 18 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Mykhailenko—4480
WAug 15 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko—1112113M. Mykhailenko—51080
WJul 19 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Mykhailenko—7740
WMay 10 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko—911612113M. Mykhailenko—117111092
WMay 2 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Mykhailenko—7980
WApr 25 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Mykhailenko—9860
WApr 16 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko—1111143M. Mykhailenko—56120
WMar 29 · 11:05O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Mykhailenko—5790
O. Ponomarenko10
LSep 12 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.08117091S. Kuzko7.0071111113WSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.44101111113D. Kunchurov2.63126871LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172
M. Mykhailenko10
WSep 12 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.001112117113M. Tkalich1.1491481182LSep 12 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.051115113M. Mykhailenko8.5051350WSep 12 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.1061211133S. Kuzko1.6711108111LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Zaiats1.361171111112M. Mykhailenko3.00811213133LSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871LSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113LAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133
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