TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116897
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012116118117––
Dmytro Kunchurov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 70.8% is still 70.8%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
70.8%
70.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 70.8%
76 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 59–28 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 28 of their 87 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
59-28 in 87
Ponomarenko
Correct
gap of 31 in 87, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1024 vs Kunchurov 940
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Kunchurov 80%
Kunchurov
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Kunchurov 70%
Kunchurov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Kunchurov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.44 / Kunchurov 2.63
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13116897
Ponomarenko1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 83 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Kunchurov2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog30% won 38 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back13% 11 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back6% 3 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko9wins
AwayKunchurov1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%9 of 9
AwayKunchurovn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko9Kunchurov1n = 10Ponomarenko took 9 of 10
S2Ponomarenko5Kunchurov5n = 10split evenly
S3Ponomarenko7Kunchurov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Kunchurov1n = 5Ponomarenko took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovP − KBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.528.1+9.4per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 651 vs 80 / 20646.2%38.8%301 / 651 vs 80 / 206Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match35.435.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.44/Kunchurov 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.8%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 13:30O. Ponomarenko—115116113D. Kunchurov—81191142
WAug 22 · 11:50O. Ponomarenko—1181011113D. Kunchurov—51112982
WAug 18 · 11:10O. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kunchurov—3580
WAug 15 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko—11118113D. Kunchurov—981181
WJul 22 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko—1115113D. Kunchurov—81370
WJul 19 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kunchurov—1430
LJun 15 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko—8980D. Kunchurov—1111113
WJun 14 · 12:10O. Ponomarenko—11811113D. Kunchurov—411751
WJun 13 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Kunchurov—4670
WJun 6 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko—11411113D. Kunchurov—711821
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212
D. Kunchurov10
LSep 6 · 11:05D. Kunchurov1.7311911111M. Zaiats2.0091113133WSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113LSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 06:30V. Mykhalchenko1.1411116672D. Kunchurov5.00791111113LAug 29 · 10:30D. Kunchurov4.5071170V. Mykhalchenko1.171113113
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