TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116556
Played Sep 12Finished
Mykhailo Mykhailenko
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191214118711118
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.14
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 85.7% is still 85.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
85.7%
85.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 102 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 85.7%
102 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 2–11 Maksym Tkalich Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 2 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-11 in 13
Tkalich
Wrong
gap of 9 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 762 vs Tkalich 852
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 91 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 40% vs Tkalich 20%
Mykhailenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 30% vs Tkalich 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -1 · Tkalich -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 85% — Strong (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 86% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (20%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 5.00 / Tkalich 1.14
Signal prob.15% / 85%
Edge (Tkalich)+3.5pp
Setka Cup · #13116556
Mykhailenko5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog25% won 19 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back13% 7 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 38
Tkalich1.14
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 37 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailenko2wins
AwayTkalich8wins
Tkalich leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkalich100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S2Mykhailenko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S3Mykhailenko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S4Mykhailenko0Tkalich5n = 5Tkalich took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.235.7−7.5per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 90 vs 114 / 26224.4%43.5%22 / 90 vs 114 / 262Avg sets wonper match1.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match31.235.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichMykhailenko 5.00/Tkalich 1.14
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
84.9%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mykhailenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—711651M. Tkalich—11911113
LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—71250M. Tkalich—1114113
WAug 23 · 17:00M. Mykhailenko—1111123M. Tkalich—86100
LAug 15 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko—6711141M. Tkalich—11116163
LJul 19 · 11:35M. Mykhailenko—5870M. Tkalich—1111113
LJul 12 · 14:40M. Mykhailenko—6490M. Tkalich—1111113
WMay 10 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko—1111113M. Tkalich—8880
LMay 2 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—571181M. Tkalich—11119113
LApr 25 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—113791M. Tkalich—61111113
LApr 11 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—411631M. Tkalich—11711113
M. Mykhailenko10
LSep 12 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.051115113M. Mykhailenko8.5051350WSep 12 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.1061211133S. Kuzko1.6711108111LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Zaiats1.361171111112M. Mykhailenko3.00811213133LSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871LSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113LAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7571250M. Tkalich1.251114113
M. Tkalich10
LSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780LSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113WAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7571250M. Tkalich1.251114113
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