TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117278
Played Sep 12Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111311311911––
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.2% is still 54.2%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
54.2%
54.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 54.2%
75 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 15–7 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 7 of their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ponomarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-7 in 22
Ponomarenko
Wrong
gap of 8 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 980 vs Mykhalchenko 1165
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 185 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Mykhalchenko 100%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Mykhalchenko 90%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -2 · Mykhalchenko +5
Mykhalchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Ponomarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.67 / Mykhalchenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Ponomarenko)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13117278
Ponomarenko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite69% won 83 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Mykhalchenko2.10
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 12 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko5wins
AwayMykhalchenko5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayMykhalchenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko6Mykhalchenko4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko5Mykhalchenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Ponomarenko5Mykhalchenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Ponomarenko3Mykhalchenko3n = 6split evenly
S5Ponomarenko2Mykhalchenko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoMykhalchenkoP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.734.0+3.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 650 vs 130 / 22846.3%57%301 / 650 vs 130 / 228Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.67/Mykhalchenko 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko—414611113V. Mykhalchenko—111211362
WAug 22 · 08:50O. Ponomarenko—117812113V. Mykhalchenko—411111032
WAug 9 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Mykhalchenko—4930
WJul 31 · 14:00O. Ponomarenko—1111103V. Mykhalchenko—9560
LJul 22 · 16:30O. Ponomarenko—57111172V. Mykhalchenko—111173113
WJul 4 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko—1111113V. Mykhalchenko—4740
LJun 28 · 13:10O. Ponomarenko—7119131V. Mykhalchenko—11811153
LJun 24 · 11:40O. Ponomarenko—11511992V. Mykhalchenko—511411113
LJun 14 · 15:10O. Ponomarenko—126791V. Mykhalchenko—101111113
LMay 22 · 17:00O. Ponomarenko—71070V. Mykhalchenko—1112113
O. Ponomarenko10
LSep 12 · 09:00O. Ponomarenko1.179650M. Mykhailenko4.501111113LSep 12 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.08117091S. Kuzko7.0071111113WSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780WSep 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko1.44101111113D. Kunchurov2.63126871LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123
V. Mykhalchenko10
WSep 12 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0891111113S. Kuzko7.00118791WSep 12 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.2871111133D. Kunchurov3.501166111WSep 12 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.051115113M. Mykhailenko8.5051350WSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102LSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782WSep 6 · 07:35M. Zaiats2.208611131V. Mykhalchenko1.6111118153WSep 6 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.141111113K. Tsoi5.003580WSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551
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