TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116605
Played Sep 12Finished
Stanislav Kuzko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811111118119––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingStanislav Kuzko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-1
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 70 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 67.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Kuzko 10–15 Maksym Tkalich Stanislav Kuzko has won 10 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-15 in 25
Tkalich
Wrong
gap of 5 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzko 800 vs Tkalich 817
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzko 40% vs Tkalich 20%
Kuzko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzko 50% vs Tkalich 20%
Kuzko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzko -1 · Tkalich -4
Tkalich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (20%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzko 2.50 / Tkalich 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Tkalich)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116605
Kuzko2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog23% won 22 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back13% 8 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 44
Tkalich1.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite54% won 37 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzko4wins
AwayTkalich6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkalich leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzko50%2 of 4
AwayTkalich66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S2Kuzko5Tkalich5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzko6Tkalich4n = 10Kuzko took 6 of 10
S4Kuzko3Tkalich4n = 7Tkalich took 4 of 7
S5Kuzko1Tkalich3n = 4Tkalich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzkoTkalichK − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.540.50.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime43 / 181 vs 114 / 26423.8%43.2%43 / 181 vs 114 / 264Avg sets wonper match1.41.8per matchAvg pointsper match33.735.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichKuzko 2.50/Tkalich 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kuzko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 10:35S. Kuzko—111157113M. Tkalich—65111182
WAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko—1111113M. Tkalich—8940
LAug 15 · 06:30S. Kuzko—117116162M. Tkalich—911311183
LJun 6 · 05:30S. Kuzko—81090M. Tkalich—1112113
LMay 17 · 08:00S. Kuzko—111111892M. Tkalich—681311113
LMay 16 · 11:30S. Kuzko—134111182M. Tkalich—151174113
LMay 10 · 10:35S. Kuzko—9960M. Tkalich—1111113
WMay 3 · 12:10S. Kuzko—111111113M. Tkalich—138991
WApr 11 · 08:30S. Kuzko—71112153M. Tkalich—11910131
LApr 4 · 06:00S. Kuzko—1271191M. Tkalich—14119113
S. Kuzko10
LSep 12 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0891111113S. Kuzko7.00118791WSep 12 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko1.08117091S. Kuzko7.0071111113WSep 12 · 06:30S. Kuzko3.4091111153D. Kunchurov1.301138131LSep 12 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.1061211133S. Kuzko1.6711108111LSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102WSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113WSep 6 · 09:05M. Zaiats1.441191281S. Kuzko2.6391114113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko3.251111113M. Tkalich1.338940
M. Tkalich10
LSep 12 · 10:00M. Tkalich2.108760D. Kunchurov1.671111113LSep 12 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.001112117113M. Tkalich1.1491481182LSep 12 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.571111113M. Tkalich2.255780LSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko3.251111113M. Tkalich1.338940
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