TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oleh Stopin
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117113116––––
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:14 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Stopin above · Volodymyr Mykhalchenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 61.3%
49 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Stopin 7–1 Volodymyr Mykhalchenko Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 1 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:14What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stopin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-1 in 8
Stopin
Correct
gap of 6 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stopin 1202 vs Mykhalchenko 1175
Stopin
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stopin 40% vs Mykhalchenko 60%
Mykhalchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stopin 60% vs Mykhalchenko 80%
Mykhalchenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stopin -2 · Mykhalchenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Stopin) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStopin 1.50 / Mykhalchenko 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Stopin)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13160978
Stopin1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite76% won 51 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Mykhalchenko2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 19)
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 15 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back17% 4 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStopin7wins
AwayMykhalchenko1wins
1 of 8 to a deciderStopin leads 7–1, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStopin100%5 of 5
AwayMykhalchenko33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stopin5Mykhalchenko3n = 8Stopin took 5 of 8
S2Stopin7Mykhalchenko1n = 8Stopin took 7 of 8
S3Stopin5Mykhalchenko3n = 8Stopin took 5 of 8
S4Stopin3Mykhalchenko1n = 4Stopin took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home338%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricStopinMykhalchenkoS − MBasisWins71+6in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match37.028.6+8.4per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStopinMykhalchenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 275 vs 125 / 21852.7%57.3%145 / 275 vs 125 / 218Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinStopin 1.50/Mykhalchenko 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stopin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 19 · 08:20O. Stopin174580V. Mykhalchenko331111113
WJul 31 · 13:00O. Stopin4611177113V. Mykhalchenko346151121
WJul 8 · 13:00O. Stopin45811113123V. Mykhalchenko43119211102
WJul 4 · 06:05O. Stopin331111113V. Mykhalchenko175570
WJun 28 · 16:40O. Stopin45121111113V. Mykhalchenko33144691
WJun 14 · 13:10O. Stopin4011117113V. Mykhalchenko32681171
WMay 22 · 14:30O. Stopin371111153V. Mykhalchenko2676130
WOct 4 · 05:35O. Stopin331111113V. Mykhalchenko111550
O. Stopin10
LSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153LSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111WSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112LSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:35O. Stopin2.2081211113V. Varchenko1.611110821WSep 5 · 07:35V. Stukalov1.53117991O. Stopin2.3841111113WSep 5 · 06:05O. Stopin3.251181216113V. Kucheriavyi1.33911101852
V. Mykhalchenko10
LSep 20 · 12:10V. Varchenko1.2511613113V. Mykhalchenko3.758111111WSep 19 · 10:50V. Mykhalchenko2.201311114113V. Kucheriavyi1.6115341192LSep 19 · 09:50V. Mykhalchenko1.446870D. Khavanskyi2.631111113WSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580LSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 12 · 10:30O. Ponomarenko1.67613391V. Mykhalchenko2.10111111113WSep 12 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0891111113S. Kuzko7.00118791WSep 12 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.2871111133D. Kunchurov3.501166111WSep 12 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.051115113M. Mykhailenko8.5051350WSep 12 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko1.4011912113M. Tkalich2.758111061
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