TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911611––––
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:36 and never touched — 57.3% is still 57.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
57.3%
57.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 56 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 57.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 4–4 Ondrej Polak Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:36What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1680 vs Polak 1764
Polak
Correct
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 40% vs Polak 80%
Polak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 50% vs Polak 70%
Polak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik -1 · Polak +4
Polak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.91 / Polak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13161267
Stehlik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 18 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back24% 6 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Polak1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeStehlik4wins
AwayPolak4wins
1 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPolak66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik2Polak6n = 8Polak took 6 of 8
S2Stehlik5Polak3n = 8Stehlik took 5 of 8
S3Stehlik4Polak4n = 8split evenly
S4Stehlik2Polak3n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricStehlikPolakS − PBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set26−4of 8Avg pointsper match33.233.9−0.7per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 253 vs 93 / 15954.2%58.5%137 / 253 vs 93 / 159Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakStehlik 1.91/Polak 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik32811671O. Polak4111811113
WJul 4 · 08:05O. Stehlik50811119113O. Polak4311891142
WJul 3 · 16:05O. Stehlik341112113O. Polak2171040
WJun 19 · 13:05O. Stehlik4261312113O. Polak3711111051
LJun 19 · 11:35O. Stehlik29961131O. Polak4211119113
LJun 13 · 13:45O. Stehlik225980O. Polak331111113
WJun 13 · 12:05O. Stehlik4211119113O. Polak21221161
LJun 12 · 12:35O. Stehlik156450O. Polak331111113
O. Stehlik10
LSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113WSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951WSep 19 · 17:15M. Mastera2.007770O. Stehlik1.731111113LSep 19 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.739850M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.44991391A. Veliiev2.63111111113LSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113LSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka1.80115941O. Polak1.9161111113WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113
Upcoming Matches
O. Stehlik
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O. Polak
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