TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116511911411––
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:37 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 68 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 55.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 7–7 Ondrej Polak Dead even across their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-7 in 14
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1620 vs Polak 1772
Polak
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Polak 80%
Polak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 30% vs Polak 70%
Polak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -3 · Polak +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.80 / Polak 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Polak)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13161270
Ruzicka1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite60% won 12 of 20
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it58% 7 of 12
Polak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog65% won 20 of 31
Down 0–1, comes back53% 9 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayPolak5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka33.3%2 of 6
AwayPolak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka6Polak4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka4Polak6n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S3Ruzicka5Polak5n = 10split evenly
S4Ruzicka3Polak6n = 9Polak took 6 of 9
S5Ruzicka3Polak2n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaPolakR − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.941.3−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 129 vs 93 / 15938.8%58.5%50 / 129 vs 93 / 159Avg sets wonper match1.72.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakRuzicka 1.80/Polak 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 11:35J. Ruzicka29115941O. Polak3961111113
LSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka197480O. Polak331111113
WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka49811118113O. Polak3311551112
LAug 12 · 13:35J. Ruzicka49116111292O. Polak53911814113
WAug 12 · 12:05J. Ruzicka4211119113O. Polak36891181
WJul 4 · 07:05J. Ruzicka44115116113O. Polak4391141182
LJul 3 · 17:20J. Ruzicka24115711O. Polak4181111113
WJul 3 · 15:05J. Ruzicka45121111113O. Polak35148581
LJun 30 · 13:05J. Ruzicka55111188172O. Polak55951111193
WJun 30 · 10:35J. Ruzicka43371111113O. Polak4511117972
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 20 · 10:05O. Stehlik1.73111111113J. Ruzicka2.00513951LSep 18 · 13:04J. Ruzicka2.5091090F. Karel1.501112113LSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 18 · 10:35F. Karel1.6711117113J. Ruzicka2.10551141LSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102WSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 12:05O. Stehlik1.918960O. Polak1.801111113WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.