TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145272
Played Sep 17Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911911611––––
Oldrich Stehlik
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Stehlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Oldrich Stehlik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Oldrich Stehlik at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 2–4 Oldrich Stehlik Jakub Ruzicka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:33What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Stehlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Stehlik
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1736 vs Stehlik 1730
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 80% vs Stehlik 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 60% vs Stehlik 20%
Ruzicka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +2 · Stehlik -3
Stehlik
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stehlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stehlik form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.83 / Stehlik 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stehlik)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13145272
Ruzicka1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Stehlik1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRuzicka2wins
AwayStehlik4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStehlik leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayStehlik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka2Stehlik4n = 6Stehlik took 4 of 6
S2Ruzicka3Stehlik3n = 6split evenly
S3Ruzicka3Stehlik3n = 6split evenly
S4Ruzicka3Stehlik2n = 5Ruzicka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricRuzickaStehlikR − SBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match37.540.8−3.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaStehlikBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 119 vs 131 / 24340.3%53.9%48 / 119 vs 131 / 243Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.338.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikRuzicka 1.83/Stehlik 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stehlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJul 9 · 17:40J. Ruzicka4011711113O. Stehlik38911991
LJul 9 · 15:35J. Ruzicka351012941O. Stehlik44121011113
LJul 4 · 09:40J. Ruzicka4491171162O. Stehlik45116116113
WJul 4 · 06:35J. Ruzicka4061111123O. Stehlik331148101
LJul 3 · 14:35J. Ruzicka48118136102O. Stehlik527111111123
LApr 25 · 12:35J. Ruzicka182790O. Stehlik331111113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113
O. Stehlik10
WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113LAug 5 · 17:21O. Stehlik1.8011691182M. Mastera1.91511119113LAug 5 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.917940F. Karel1.801111113LAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113WAug 5 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.73129117123M. Mastera2.001011511102LAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122LAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik1.919880F. Karel1.801111113LAug 2 · 19:05O. Stehlik2.107760D. Lengal1.671111113LAug 2 · 18:05O. Stehlik1.8011211682M. Mastera1.911110611113LJul 24 · 17:44O. Stehlik1.67711891F. Karel2.1011811113
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