TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12365534
Played Aug 5Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711911411––––
Filip Karel
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:29 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Filip Karel below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Filip Karel at 54.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 6–11 Filip Karel Oldrich Stehlik has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:29What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Karel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Karel
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1725 vs Karel 1833
Karel
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 20% vs Karel 80%
Karel
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 40% vs Karel 70%
Karel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik -1 · Karel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.91 / Karel 1.80
Signal prob.41% / 60%
Edge (Karel)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12365534
Stehlik1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 24 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back29% 9 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Karel1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 24 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it73% 8 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it71% 15 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStehlik5wins
AwayKarel5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlik75%3 of 4
AwayKarel66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik4Karel6n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S2Stehlik5Karel5n = 10split evenly
S3Stehlik4Karel6n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S4Stehlik3Karel4n = 7Karel took 4 of 7
S5Stehlik3Karel1n = 4Stehlik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStehlikKarelS − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.4−2.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikKarelBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 242 vs 81 / 14354.1%56.6%131 / 242 vs 81 / 143Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.440.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelStehlik 1.91/Karel 1.80
Hit
What we said
59.5%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 5 · 16:05O. Stehlik207940F. Karel331111113
LAug 2 · 21:04O. Stehlik49118711122F. Karel52811118143
LAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik259880F. Karel331111113
LJul 24 · 17:44O. Stehlik35711891F. Karel4111811113
WJul 24 · 14:05O. Stehlik39411112113F. Karel3711391132
WJul 16 · 17:50O. Stehlik48111196113F. Karel4779111192
WJul 16 · 14:35O. Stehlik517111012113F. Karel45114121082
LMay 23 · 20:35O. Stehlik23621141F. Karel4211119113
WMay 16 · 13:15O. Stehlik4011711113F. Karel34711971
WMay 16 · 11:35O. Stehlik331111113F. Karel207580
O. Stehlik10
WSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113LAug 5 · 17:21O. Stehlik1.8011691182M. Mastera1.91511119113LAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113WAug 5 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.73129117123M. Mastera2.001011511102LAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122LAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik1.919880F. Karel1.801111113LAug 2 · 19:05O. Stehlik2.107760D. Lengal1.671111113LAug 2 · 18:05O. Stehlik1.8011211682M. Mastera1.911110611113
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113WAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122WAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik1.919880F. Karel1.801111113
Upcoming Matches
O. Stehlik
Nothing scheduled
F. Karel
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