TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12350533
Played Aug 2Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711611––––
Dominik Lengal
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Stehlik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 53 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Oldrich Stehlik at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 10–20 Dominik Lengal Oldrich Stehlik has won 10 of their 30 meetings.
The pickContradict
Sealed 09:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lengal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-20 in 30
Lengal
Correct
gap of 10 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1788 vs Lengal 1769
Stehlik
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 60% vs Lengal 40%
Stehlik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 60% vs Lengal 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik -2 · Lengal +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stehlik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lengal form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 2.10 / Lengal 1.67
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stehlik)+9.8pp
TT Cup · #12350533
Stehlik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 25 of 51
Down 0–1, comes back31% 9 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Lengal1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 82 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it94% 49 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it84% 67 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStehlik4wins
AwayLengal6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLengal leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlik80%4 of 5
AwayLengal100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik5Lengal5n = 10split evenly
S2Stehlik4Lengal6n = 10Lengal took 6 of 10
S3Stehlik5Lengal5n = 10split evenly
S4Stehlik3Lengal3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStehlikLengalS − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.936.0−1.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 236 vs 154 / 25155.1%61.4%130 / 236 vs 154 / 251Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikStehlik 2.10/Lengal 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lengal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 24 · 16:05O. Stehlik43111011113D. Lengal32512781
WJul 22 · 12:05O. Stehlik331111113D. Lengal207670
LJul 15 · 16:05O. Stehlik35981171D. Lengal4211119113
LJun 19 · 10:05O. Stehlik365911111D. Lengal4211117133
LJun 7 · 21:05O. Stehlik195770D. Lengal331111113
LJun 7 · 19:05O. Stehlik209650D. Lengal331111113
LJun 1 · 10:35O. Stehlik491211511102D. Lengal541013118123
LMay 22 · 16:05O. Stehlik378111261D. Lengal4311714113
WMay 11 · 13:45O. Stehlik4313118113D. Lengal371171181
WMay 11 · 12:05O. Stehlik341111123D. Lengal2486100
O. Stehlik10
WSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113LAug 5 · 17:21O. Stehlik1.8011691182M. Mastera1.91511119113LAug 5 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.917940F. Karel1.801111113LAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113WAug 5 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.73129117123M. Mastera2.001011511102LAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122LAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik1.919880F. Karel1.801111113LAug 2 · 18:05O. Stehlik1.8011211682M. Mastera1.911110611113
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112WAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113WAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113
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