TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145309
Played Sep 17Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118116––––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeOldrich Stehlik to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oldrich Stehlik at 62.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 8–3 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stehlik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Stehlik
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1753 vs Trnka 1555
Stehlik
Correct
both rated, 198 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 40% vs Trnka 0%
Stehlik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 30% vs Trnka 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik +2 · Trnka -5
Trnka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stehlik) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.50 / Trnka 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stehlik)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13145309
Stehlik1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 37 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it78% 25 of 32
Trnka2.50
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStehlik7wins
AwayTrnka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStehlik leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlik80%4 of 5
AwayTrnka40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik5Trnka5n = 10split evenly
S2Stehlik7Trnka3n = 10Stehlik took 7 of 10
S3Stehlik6Trnka4n = 10Stehlik took 6 of 10
S4Stehlik5Trnka1n = 6Stehlik took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStehlikTrnkaS − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.131.0+7.1per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 245 vs 140 / 27154.3%51.7%133 / 245 vs 140 / 271Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikStehlik 1.50/Trnka 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stehlik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 13 · 21:10O. Stehlik331111113T. Trnka185760
LMay 13 · 19:35O. Stehlik4911991192T. Trnka41611112113
WMar 21 · 21:35O. Stehlik331111113T. Trnka209740
WMar 17 · 20:05O. Stehlik331111113T. Trnka219570
WMar 6 · 21:35O. Stehlik4061112113T. Trnka301131061
LFeb 6 · 22:10O. Stehlik268990T. Trnka331111113
WFeb 6 · 20:35O. Stehlik4391112113T. Trnka341191041
WJan 23 · 17:35O. Stehlik529101111113T. Trnka3911127182
LJan 11 · 18:10O. Stehlik29611481T. Trnka4111811113
WJan 11 · 17:35O. Stehlik43111110113T. Trnka33571291
O. Stehlik10
LSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113LAug 5 · 17:21O. Stehlik1.8011691182M. Mastera1.91511119113LAug 5 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.917940F. Karel1.801111113LAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113WAug 5 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.73129117123M. Mastera2.001011511102LAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122LAug 2 · 20:05O. Stehlik1.919880F. Karel1.801111113LAug 2 · 19:05O. Stehlik2.107760D. Lengal1.671111113
T. Trnka10
LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113
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