TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129241
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Beran 2000
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1177111181210––
Tomas Trnka
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Trnka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Beran 2000 above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Tomas Trnka at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Beran 2000 6–4 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 12:24What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Trnka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Beran
Correct
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Beran 1618 vs Trnka 1608
Beran
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Beran 40% vs Trnka 20%
Beran
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Beran 30% vs Trnka 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Beran -2 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Trnka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBeran 2.63 / Trnka 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Trnka)-0.4pp
TT Cup · #13129241
Beran2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 16 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Trnka1.44
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite71% won 59 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBeran6wins
AwayTrnka4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderBeran leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBeran75%3 of 4
AwayTrnka50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Beran4Trnka6n = 10Trnka took 6 of 10
S2Beran5Trnka5n = 10split evenly
S3Beran5Trnka5n = 10split evenly
S4Beran5Trnka3n = 8Beran took 5 of 8
S5Beran2Trnka1n = 3Beran took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBeranTrnkaB − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.740.0−0.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBeranTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 137 vs 140 / 26751.8%52.4%71 / 137 vs 140 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrnkaBeran 2.63/Trnka 1.44
Miss
What we said
64.1%
Trnka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Beran won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran486101111102T. Trnka53111299123
LSep 1 · 17:15T. Beran224990T. Trnka331111113
LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran21101100T. Trnka351211123
WAug 18 · 21:15T. Beran43111011113T. Trnka33612871
WAug 18 · 19:35T. Beran45121111113T. Trnka36148771
WApr 14 · 17:05T. Beran46711116113T. Trnka4611891172
WApr 14 · 14:05T. Beran521112810113T. Trnka45610111262
LFeb 18 · 17:35T. Beran351177101T. Trnka4281111123
WDec 11 · 20:05T. Beran3741111113T. Trnka35119781
WDec 9 · 17:05T. Beran4811179113T. Trnka429151171
T. Beran10
WSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030LSep 14 · 14:35M. Kucera1.6112414123T. Beran2.20101112101WSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111LSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101WSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861LSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990LSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113LSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123
T. Trnka10
LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123WSep 1 · 17:15T. Trnka1.831111113T. Beran1.834990WSep 1 · 15:05T. Beran1.67101100T. Trnka2.101211123
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