TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13145187
Played Sep 17Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119117811711119
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:24 and never touched — 69.9% is still 69.9%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
69.9%
69.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 69.9%
95 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 10–6 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:24What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Bartik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Bartik
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1680 vs Trnka 1568
Bartik
Correct
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 40% vs Trnka 20%
Bartik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 40% vs Trnka 20%
Bartik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik -1 · Trnka -3
Trnka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.40 / Trnka 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Bartik)+3.6pp
TT Cup · #13145187
Bartik1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 77 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 42 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 60 of 78
Trnka2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 55
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik8wins
AwayTrnka2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik85.7%6 of 7
AwayTrnka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik7Trnka3n = 10Bartik took 7 of 10
S2Bartik7Trnka3n = 10Bartik took 7 of 10
S3Bartik4Trnka6n = 10Trnka took 6 of 10
S4Bartik4Trnka5n = 9Trnka took 5 of 9
S5Bartik5Trnka1n = 6Bartik took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikTrnkaB − TBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match44.039.7+4.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 313 vs 140 / 26958.8%52%184 / 313 vs 140 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.236.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.40/Trnka 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.9%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bartik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik508111110102T. Trnka50118712123
WSep 6 · 15:35T. Bartik3911116113T. Trnka35791181
WAug 22 · 18:05T. Bartik47111177113T. Trnka4049111152
WAug 22 · 14:05T. Bartik50119118113T. Trnka4371161182
WAug 18 · 18:05T. Bartik45111310113T. Trnka354111281
WJul 27 · 13:40T. Bartik40411212113T. Trnka45116111072
LJul 27 · 11:35T. Bartik361196101T. Trnka4281111123
WMay 13 · 18:05T. Bartik49111188113T. Trnka3768111112
WApr 14 · 15:35T. Bartik351111133T. Trnka2788110
WMar 22 · 11:05T. Bartik491051112113T. Trnka43121131072
T. Bartik10
LSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113LSep 14 · 17:40T. Bartik1.51131191192M. Kucera2.35153116113WSep 14 · 16:05T. Bartik1.5711185113M. Kucera2.256161131WSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030LSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113
T. Trnka10
LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970
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