TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13129205
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161816511113––
Martin Kucera
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 18-16
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 81 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 60.5%
81 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 12–4 Martin Kucera Martin Kucera has won 4 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bartik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-4 in 16
Bartik
Correct
gap of 8 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1665 vs Kucera 1714
Kucera
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Kucera 80%
Kucera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 40% vs Kucera 60%
Kucera
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +1 · Kucera +4
Kucera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Bartik) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.57 / Kucera 2.25
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Bartik)-0.6pp
TT Cup · #13129205
Bartik1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Kucera2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 7 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik8wins
AwayKucera2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik100%6 of 6
AwayKucera50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Kucera4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik8Kucera2n = 10Bartik took 8 of 10
S3Bartik5Kucera5n = 10split evenly
S4Bartik4Kucera2n = 6Bartik took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikKuceraB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.133.9+4.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 311 vs 75 / 13658.8%55.2%183 / 311 vs 75 / 136Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.57/Kucera 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Bartik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 21 · 15:35T. Bartik5611121111113M. Kucera5081481372
WAug 1 · 21:40T. Bartik331111113M. Kucera226880
LAug 1 · 19:35T. Bartik2691160M. Kucera351113113
WAug 1 · 17:13T. Bartik47613611113M. Kucera50111111982
WAug 1 · 14:05T. Bartik341112113M. Kucera2681080
WJul 11 · 21:05T. Bartik3811115113M. Kucera34771191
LJul 11 · 20:05T. Bartik311111451M. Kucera4313811113
WJul 10 · 16:05T. Bartik4271113113M. Kucera321161141
WMay 30 · 13:35T. Bartik4111118113M. Kucera28391151
WMay 30 · 10:35T. Bartik331111113M. Kucera198650
T. Bartik10
WSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030LSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133
M. Kucera10
WSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:35M. Kucera1.6112414123T. Beran2.20101112101WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981LAug 31 · 14:35M. Kucera1.554960J. Ruzicka2.191111113
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