TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13130453
Played Sep 14Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.51
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315113911116911
Martin Kucera
Away
2.35
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:33 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Martin Kucera below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 99 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 64.4%
99 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 13–4 Martin Kucera Martin Kucera has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Bartik beat Kucera 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-4 in 17
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1678 vs Kucera 1701
Kucera
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Kucera 80%
Kucera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 50% vs Kucera 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +2 · Kucera -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Bartik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kucera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (43%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.51 / Kucera 2.35
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Bartik)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13130453
Bartik1.51
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite55% won 76 of 139
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 59 of 78
Kucera2.35
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 7 of 19
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik8wins
AwayKucera2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik100%6 of 6
AwayKucera50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Kucera4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik8Kucera2n = 10Bartik took 8 of 10
S3Bartik4Kucera6n = 10Kucera took 6 of 10
S4Bartik5Kucera2n = 7Bartik took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikKuceraB − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.335.6+3.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikKuceraBasisWin rate · lifetime184 / 312 vs 75 / 13759%54.7%184 / 312 vs 75 / 137Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.51/Kucera 2.35
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.4%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kucera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 14 · 16:05T. Bartik4511185113M. Kucera366161131
WAug 21 · 15:35T. Bartik5611121111113M. Kucera5081481372
WAug 1 · 21:40T. Bartik331111113M. Kucera226880
LAug 1 · 19:35T. Bartik2691160M. Kucera351113113
WAug 1 · 17:13T. Bartik47613611113M. Kucera50111111982
WAug 1 · 14:05T. Bartik341112113M. Kucera2681080
WJul 11 · 21:05T. Bartik3811115113M. Kucera34771191
LJul 11 · 20:05T. Bartik311111451M. Kucera4313811113
WJul 10 · 16:05T. Bartik4271113113M. Kucera321161141
WMay 30 · 13:35T. Bartik4111118113M. Kucera28391151
T. Bartik10
WSep 14 · 16:05T. Bartik1.5711185113M. Kucera2.256161131WSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030LSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123
M. Kucera10
LSep 14 · 16:05T. Bartik1.5711185113M. Kucera2.256161131WSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:35M. Kucera1.6112414123T. Beran2.20101112101WSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770WSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113WSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
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