TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110636
Played Sep 10Finished
Matej Holub
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6114111171012––
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 72 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 1–0 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Holub beat Ruzicka 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Holub 1662 vs Ruzicka 1717
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Ruzicka +1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.25 / Ruzicka 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13110636
Holub2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 40 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back32% 13 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Ruzicka1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite50% won 9 of 18
Up 2–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHolub1wins
AwayRuzicka0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderHolub leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHolubRuzickaH − RBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match51.049.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime121 / 212 vs 47 / 11857.1%39.8%121 / 212 vs 47 / 118Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaHolub 2.25/Ruzicka 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 10 · 15:05M. Holub—811119123J. Ruzicka—118911102
M. Holub10
WSep 10 · 16:35M. Holub2.381211113M. Mastera1.5310870WSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113LSep 10 · 13:10M. Holub2.00811111162R. Fitl1.73111398113LSep 10 · 12:05M. Holub1.7341113182J. Ruzicka2.001181111113LSep 10 · 11:05M. Holub1.801011112132R. Vosyka1.91126911153WSep 10 · 10:05M. Holub2.00111198113R. Fitl1.7377111172WSep 7 · 13:14R. Vavricka2.1051161162M. Holub1.67118118113WSep 7 · 12:05M. Holub1.839111111113R. Neterda1.8311713482LSep 7 · 11:05M. Holub1.80961161R. Fitl1.9111118113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471LSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113WAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
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