TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148755
Played Sep 18Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115115711114––
Jakub Ruzicka
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Jakub Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 65 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Filip Karel at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 3–2 Jakub Ruzicka Jakub Ruzicka has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:58What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Karel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1727 vs Ruzicka 1716
Karel
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 50% vs Ruzicka 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel +1 · Ruzicka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.67 / Ruzicka 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Karel)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13148755
Karel1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 38 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Ruzicka2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 31 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKarel3wins
AwayRuzicka2wins
2 of 5 to a deciderKarel leads 3–2, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKareln = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayRuzicka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel1Ruzicka4n = 5Ruzicka took 4 of 5
S2Karel3Ruzicka2n = 5Karel took 3 of 5
S3Karel3Ruzicka2n = 5Karel took 3 of 5
S4Karel3Ruzicka0n = 3Karel took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricKarelRuzickaK − RBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match38.238.0+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime106 / 188 vs 49 / 12256.4%40.2%106 / 188 vs 49 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.31.7per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.67/Ruzicka 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel217590J. Ruzicka331111113
LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel4275111182J. Ruzicka48111196113
WAug 22 · 18:35F. Karel341111123J. Ruzicka2899100
WAug 4 · 15:35F. Karel4281112113J. Ruzicka321131081
WApr 26 · 12:05F. Karel52911712133J. Ruzicka491161110112
F. Karel10
LSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102WSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123WSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Karel
Nothing scheduled
J. Ruzicka
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