TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13153765
Played Sep 18Finished
Jakub Ruzicka
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111012911––––
Filip Karel
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingJakub Ruzicka above · Filip Karel below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 62 set 3, 9-11
62 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Ruzicka 2–4 Filip Karel Jakub Ruzicka has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Karel beat Ruzicka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 2.50 / Karel 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Karel)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13153765
Ruzicka2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 31 of 77
Down 0–1, comes back12% 5 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Karel1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite54% won 38 of 70
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it69% 25 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeRuzicka2wins
AwayKarel4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderKarel leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka50%2 of 4
AwayKareln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Karel2n = 6Ruzicka took 4 of 6
S2Ruzicka2Karel4n = 6Karel took 4 of 6
S3Ruzicka3Karel3n = 6split evenly
S4Ruzicka0Karel4n = 4Karel took 4 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricRuzickaKarelR − KBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match35.838.5−2.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaKarelBasisWin rate · lifetime50 / 126 vs 107 / 19139.7%56%50 / 126 vs 107 / 191Avg sets wonper match1.72.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.540.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelRuzicka 2.50/Karel 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.7%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 18 · 10:35J. Ruzicka25551141F. Karel4011117113
WSep 2 · 10:05J. Ruzicka331111113F. Karel217590
WAug 31 · 15:05J. Ruzicka48111196113F. Karel4275111182
LAug 22 · 18:35J. Ruzicka2899100F. Karel341111123
LAug 4 · 15:35J. Ruzicka321131081F. Karel4281112113
LApr 26 · 12:05J. Ruzicka491161110112F. Karel52911712133
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:05T. Bartik1.61117119102J. Ruzicka2.20911911123LSep 18 · 10:35F. Karel1.6711117113J. Ruzicka2.10551141LSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102WSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113WSep 10 · 17:40M. Holub2.256411101J. Ruzicka1.5711117123WSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112LSep 10 · 15:05J. Ruzicka1.50118911102M. Holub2.50811119123
F. Karel10
LSep 18 · 12:05T. Bartik1.731311123F. Karel2.00116100LSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:35F. Karel1.6711117113J. Ruzicka2.10551141WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232
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