TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158389
Played Sep 19Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116119116––––
Martin Mastera
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:52 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 54 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 58.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 11–8 Martin Mastera Martin Mastera has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:52What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-8 in 19
Polak
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1740 vs Mastera 1654
Polak
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 100% vs Mastera 20%
Polak
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Mastera 50%
Polak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +5 · Mastera -1
Polak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.61 / Mastera 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Polak)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13158389
Polak1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 28 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it82% 14 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it77% 20 of 26
Mastera2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 52 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayMastera5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwayMastera80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Mastera5n = 10split evenly
S2Polak9Mastera1n = 10Polak took 9 of 10
S3Polak4Mastera6n = 10Mastera took 6 of 10
S4Polak3Mastera4n = 7Mastera took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakMasteraP − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.836.4+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime87 / 150 vs 169 / 34158%49.6%87 / 150 vs 169 / 341Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.61/Mastera 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.1%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak53812158102M. Mastera5711101311123
WSep 10 · 15:35O. Polak4011126113M. Mastera328101131
WAug 17 · 15:05O. Polak331111113M. Mastera195860
LAug 10 · 14:35O. Polak30711841M. Mastera4211911113
LJul 4 · 13:45O. Polak32711771M. Mastera3811511113
WJul 4 · 10:35O. Polak4271311113M. Mastera361111951
LJul 4 · 09:10O. Polak2155110M. Mastera351111133
WJul 4 · 06:05O. Polak331111113M. Mastera207760
LJul 3 · 14:05O. Polak42111136112M. Mastera51791111133
WJun 21 · 16:05O. Polak4211119113M. Mastera34891161
O. Polak10
LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123LSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113
M. Mastera10
WSep 19 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.739850M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 19 · 14:35M. Mastera1.40117591A. Veliiev2.7561111113WSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123LSep 10 · 16:35M. Holub2.381211113M. Mastera1.5310870LSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113
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