TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13148756
Played Sep 18Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1171012611911––
Ondrej Polak
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:59 and never touched — 57.4% is still 57.4%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
57.4%
57.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 77 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 57.4%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 6–4 Ondrej Polak Ondrej Polak has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:59What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1704 vs Polak 1685
Bartik
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Polak 40%
Bartik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 60% vs Polak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +2 · Polak -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Bartik) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.67 / Polak 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Bartik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13148756
Bartik1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite55% won 77 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it98% 42 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 60 of 78
Polak2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog63% won 17 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back53% 8 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik6wins
AwayPolak4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik83.3%5 of 6
AwayPolak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Polak4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik4Polak6n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S3Bartik4Polak6n = 10Polak took 6 of 10
S4Bartik6Polak3n = 9Bartik took 6 of 9
S5Bartik3Polak2n = 5Bartik took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikPolakB − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.439.9+2.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 317 vs 82 / 14559%56.6%187 / 317 vs 82 / 145Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.67/Polak 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik45105111182O. Polak50121188113
WAug 10 · 17:10T. Bartik45111211113O. Polak367101361
LAug 10 · 15:05T. Bartik41111111532O. Polak46613511113
LJun 23 · 15:35T. Bartik34691181O. Polak4211119113
WJun 19 · 10:35T. Bartik3911116113O. Polak34691181
WJun 14 · 16:05T. Bartik51911119113O. Polak3411541132
LJun 12 · 11:35T. Bartik219390O. Polak331111113
WFeb 22 · 18:10T. Bartik48119611113O. Polak3621111752
WFeb 22 · 16:05T. Bartik4411166113O. Polak397141171
WJan 17 · 21:05T. Bartik5613101111113O. Polak49111213672
T. Bartik10
WSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 20:05T. Bartik1.361511106123J. Ruzicka3.001361211102LSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:40T. Bartik1.51131191192M. Kucera2.35153116113WSep 14 · 16:05T. Bartik1.5711185113M. Kucera2.256161131WSep 14 · 15:05T. Bartik1.501112113T. Beran2.5071030LSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113
O. Polak10
LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123LSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111
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