TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13110637
Played Sep 10Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811121015138111012
Martin Mastera
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 110 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 57.9%
110 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 11–7 Martin Mastera Martin Mastera has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Polak beat Mastera 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 17:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Polak
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1694 vs Mastera 1731
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Mastera 40%
Polak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Mastera 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -1 · Mastera -3
Mastera
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.61 / Mastera 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Polak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13110637
Polak1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 29 of 47
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it78% 21 of 27
Mastera2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back28% 23 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolak6wins
AwayMastera4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPolak leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwayMastera60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Mastera5n = 10split evenly
S2Polak9Mastera1n = 10Polak took 9 of 10
S3Polak4Mastera6n = 10Mastera took 6 of 10
S4Polak3Mastera4n = 7Mastera took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolakMasteraP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.634.7+0.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime82 / 144 vs 168 / 33956.9%49.6%82 / 144 vs 168 / 339Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.61/Mastera 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 15:35O. Polak—11126113M. Mastera—8101131
WAug 17 · 15:05O. Polak—1111113M. Mastera—5860
LAug 10 · 14:35O. Polak—711841M. Mastera—11911113
LJul 4 · 13:45O. Polak—711771M. Mastera—11511113
WJul 4 · 10:35O. Polak—71311113M. Mastera—1111951
LJul 4 · 09:10O. Polak—55110M. Mastera—1111133
WJul 4 · 06:05O. Polak—1111113M. Mastera—7760
LJul 3 · 14:05O. Polak—111136112M. Mastera—791111133
WJun 21 · 16:05O. Polak—11119113M. Mastera—891161
WJun 20 · 07:35O. Polak—511113113M. Mastera—11391162
O. Polak10
LSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak1.73126115133T. Trnka2.001011411112WAug 22 · 15:05T. Bartik1.67105111182O. Polak2.10121188113LAug 22 · 14:35F. Karel1.671111113O. Polak2.109640LAug 17 · 17:35O. Polak1.6110119101J. Muska2.2012311123WAug 17 · 16:35O. Polak1.8314117133J. Muska1.8312911111WAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113
M. Mastera10
LSep 10 · 16:35M. Holub2.381211113M. Mastera1.5310870LSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:05J. Ruzicka1.73911511113M. Mastera2.0011711972WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132LAug 17 · 15:05M. Mastera2.005860O. Polak1.731111113
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