TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13158087
Played Sep 19Finished
Oldrich Stehlik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811118611711––
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Stehlik above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 73 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Stehlik 4–3 Ondrej Polak Ondrej Polak has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stehlik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stehlik 1711 vs Polak 1729
Polak
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stehlik 60% vs Polak 80%
Polak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stehlik 40% vs Polak 70%
Polak
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stehlik -1 · Polak +4
Polak
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stehlik) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStehlik 1.80 / Polak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stehlik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13158087
Stehlik1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 17)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 39 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it79% 27 of 34
Polak1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 18)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog66% won 19 of 29
Down 0–1, comes back56% 9 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back29% 2 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeStehlik4wins
AwayPolak3wins
1 of 7 to a deciderStehlik leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStehlikn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayPolak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stehlik2Polak5n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S2Stehlik4Polak3n = 7Stehlik took 4 of 7
S3Stehlik4Polak3n = 7Stehlik took 4 of 7
S4Stehlik2Polak2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricStehlikPolakS − PBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.432.9+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStehlikPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 247 vs 86 / 14954.3%57.7%134 / 247 vs 86 / 149Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StehlikStehlik 1.80/Polak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stehlik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 4 · 08:05O. Stehlik50811119113O. Polak4311891142
WJul 3 · 16:05O. Stehlik341112113O. Polak2171040
WJun 19 · 13:05O. Stehlik4261312113O. Polak3711111051
LJun 19 · 11:35O. Stehlik29961131O. Polak4211119113
LJun 13 · 13:45O. Stehlik225980O. Polak331111113
WJun 13 · 12:05O. Stehlik4211119113O. Polak21221161
LJun 12 · 12:35O. Stehlik156450O. Polak331111113
O. Stehlik10
LSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.44991391A. Veliiev2.63111111113LSep 17 · 21:33O. Stehlik2.50117691T. Bartik1.5051111113WSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860WSep 17 · 19:05T. Bartik1.44116101172O. Stehlik2.63511129113WSep 17 · 18:35J. Ruzicka1.839960O. Stehlik1.831111113LAug 5 · 17:21O. Stehlik1.8011691182M. Mastera1.91511119113LAug 5 · 16:05O. Stehlik1.917940F. Karel1.801111113LAug 5 · 15:05O. Stehlik2.108670D. Lengal1.671111113WAug 5 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.73129117123M. Mastera2.001011511102LAug 2 · 21:04F. Karel1.83811118143O. Stehlik1.83118711122
O. Polak10
WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123LSep 10 · 16:05J. Ruzicka1.83811118113O. Polak1.8311551112WSep 10 · 15:35M. Mastera2.258101131O. Polak1.5711126113LSep 10 · 14:35O. Polak1.506111081M. Holub2.5011412113WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak2.0081111113T. Trnka1.73116751
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