TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118911118117––
Anton Veliiev
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeAnton Veliiev to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Anton Veliiev below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 76 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Anton Veliiev at 58.3%
76 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 0–2 Anton Veliiev Ondrej Polak has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Veliiev
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Polak 1738 vs Veliiev 1732
Polak
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Veliiev 100%
Veliiev
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Veliiev 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +2 · Veliiev +8
Veliiev
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Veliiev) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Veliiev form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.83 / Veliiev 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Veliiev)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13161276
Polak1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Veliiev1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 8
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePolak0wins
AwayVeliiev2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderVeliiev leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricPolakVeliievP − VBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match28.543.5−15.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakVeliievBasisWin rate · lifetime91 / 157 vs 133 / 22358%59.6%91 / 157 vs 133 / 223Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeliievPolak 1.83/Veliiev 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Veliiev · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 19 · 17:43O. Polak1811250A. Veliiev351311113
LSep 19 · 16:35O. Polak3911741252A. Veliiev529111110113
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 09:39T. Trnka2.00961191O. Polak1.7311118113WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113
A. Veliiev10
WSep 20 · 11:05O. Stehlik2.0013112672A. Veliiev1.731161111113WSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250WSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:05O. Stehlik1.44991391A. Veliiev2.63111111113WSep 19 · 14:35M. Mastera1.40117591A. Veliiev2.7561111113WJul 24 · 22:30K. Guzy2.2091111141A. Veliiev1.5811138163WJul 24 · 20:30P. Kos3.2057110A. Veliiev1.271111133WJul 24 · 19:30T. Stachera2.253550A. Veliiev1.531111113WJul 24 · 18:00D. Kovtanyuk2.05311101572A. Veliiev1.681191213113LJul 24 · 15:00K. Guzy2.06751112113A. Veliiev1.63111181042
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