TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Jan Ruzicka
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:16 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 70.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 5–2 Jan Ruzicka Jan Ruzicka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:16What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Polak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Polak
Correct
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1717 vs Ruzicka 1648
Polak
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Ruzicka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 60% vs Ruzicka 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak -2 · Ruzicka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.40 / Ruzicka 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Polak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13161214
Polak1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Ruzicka2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog57% won 52 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomePolak5wins
AwayRuzicka2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderPolak leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak80%4 of 5
AwayRuzickan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak5Ruzicka2n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S2Polak5Ruzicka2n = 7Polak took 5 of 7
S3Polak4Ruzicka3n = 7Polak took 4 of 7
S4Polak2Ruzicka2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricPolakRuzickaP − RBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match36.932.0+4.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 155 vs 230 / 43757.4%52.6%89 / 155 vs 230 / 437Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.40/Ruzicka 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak331111113J. Ruzicka237790
LJun 2 · 16:05O. Polak2112630J. Ruzicka361411113
WMay 29 · 13:35O. Polak331111113J. Ruzicka173680
WMay 29 · 10:05O. Polak3741111113J. Ruzicka29117561
LMay 26 · 11:05O. Polak4111411692J. Ruzicka47711711113
WMar 8 · 18:15O. Polak531111119113J. Ruzicka4889131172
WMar 8 · 16:05O. Polak4011117113J. Ruzicka24441151
O. Polak10
LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123
J. Ruzicka10
LSep 20 · 07:35J. Ruzicka1.9111911962S. Vyskocil1.80811711113WSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113WSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113LSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290LSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181WSep 19 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.61811811113D. Hons2.2011511952WSep 17 · 13:39O. Pros2.2064110J. Ruzicka1.611111133
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