TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Ondrej Polak
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711711––––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeOndrej Polak to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOndrej Polak above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 58 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Ondrej Polak at 63.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Polak 3–3 Tomas Trnka Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Polak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polak 1717 vs Trnka 1598
Polak
Wrong
both rated, 119 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polak 60% vs Trnka 20%
Polak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polak 70% vs Trnka 20%
Polak
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polak +1 · Trnka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Polak) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolak 1.57 / Trnka 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Polak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13161287
Polak1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Trnka2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePolak3wins
AwayTrnka3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolak66.7%2 of 3
AwayTrnka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polak3Trnka3n = 6split evenly
S2Polak1Trnka5n = 6Trnka took 5 of 6
S3Polak4Trnka2n = 6Polak took 4 of 6
S4Polak3Trnka2n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricPolakTrnkaP − TBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.538.8−0.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolakTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 155 vs 142 / 27557.4%51.6%89 / 155 vs 142 / 275Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakPolak 1.57/Trnka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak2410770T. Trnka341211113
WAug 22 · 17:15O. Polak4181111113T. Trnka29116751
WAug 22 · 16:35O. Polak47126115133T. Trnka471011411112
LFeb 13 · 22:40O. Polak49961111122T. Trnka52111188143
LFeb 13 · 21:05O. Polak30117751T. Trnka4181111113
WJan 25 · 18:40O. Polak4011711113T. Trnka30611491
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113WSep 18 · 11:35O. Polak2.38111110113F. Karel1.53581281WSep 18 · 10:05T. Bartik1.671110691O. Polak2.1071211113LSep 10 · 17:10O. Polak1.61812158102M. Mastera2.2011101311123
T. Trnka10
LSep 20 · 06:35S. Vyskocil2.6311123113T. Trnka1.447101191WSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143
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