TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911611118911––
Ondrej Polak
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Ondrej Polak below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 76 set 4, 9-11
76 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 3–3 Ondrej Polak Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Trnka beat Polak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Polak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 2.00 / Polak 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Polak)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13163702
Trnka2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Polak1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 29 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it75% 21 of 28
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeTrnka3wins
AwayPolak3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka66.7%2 of 3
AwayPolak66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka3Polak3n = 6split evenly
S2Trnka5Polak1n = 6Trnka took 5 of 6
S3Trnka2Polak4n = 6Polak took 4 of 6
S4Trnka2Polak3n = 5Polak took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricTrnkaPolakT − PBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match38.838.5+0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaPolakBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 276 vs 90 / 15651.8%57.7%143 / 276 vs 90 / 156Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolakTrnka 2.00/Polak 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Polak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Polak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 20 · 07:05T. Trnka341211113O. Polak2410770
LAug 22 · 17:15T. Trnka29116751O. Polak4181111113
LAug 22 · 16:35T. Trnka471011411112O. Polak47126115133
WFeb 13 · 22:40T. Trnka52111188143O. Polak49961111122
WFeb 13 · 21:05T. Trnka4181111113O. Polak30117751
LJan 25 · 18:40T. Trnka30611491O. Polak4011711113
T. Trnka10
WSep 20 · 08:35T. Trnka2.1011811113J. Ruzicka1.67911181WSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113LSep 20 · 06:35S. Vyskocil2.6311123113T. Trnka1.447101191WSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113
O. Polak10
WSep 20 · 10:35O. Polak1.8311911113A. Veliiev1.83811871WSep 20 · 08:05O. Polak1.801111113S. Vyskocil1.915680LSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113WSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790LSep 19 · 17:43A. Veliiev1.801311113O. Polak1.9111250LSep 19 · 16:35A. Veliiev2.639111110113O. Polak1.4411741252WSep 19 · 15:35O. Polak1.611111113M. Mastera2.206960WSep 19 · 14:05O. Stehlik1.80811671O. Polak1.9111811113WSep 18 · 13:33O. Polak1.83971111113T. Bartik1.8311117772WSep 18 · 12:35J. Ruzicka1.837480O. Polak1.831111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Trnka
Nothing scheduled
O. Polak
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