TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811111118––
Jan Ruzicka
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Jan Ruzicka below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-1
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 70 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 62.7%
70 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 8–11 Jan Ruzicka Tomas Trnka has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Trnka 1598 vs Ruzicka 1638
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 40 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Trnka 40% vs Ruzicka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Trnka 30% vs Ruzicka 60%
Ruzicka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Trnka +1 · Ruzicka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ruzicka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 2.10 / Ruzicka 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Ruzicka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13161281
Trnka2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 20 of 56
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Ruzicka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 89 of 153
Up 2–0, closes it93% 50 of 54
Up 1–0, closes it84% 70 of 83
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTrnka4wins
AwayRuzicka6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka60%3 of 5
AwayRuzicka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka5Ruzicka5n = 10split evenly
S2Trnka3Ruzicka7n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Trnka2Ruzicka8n = 10Ruzicka took 8 of 10
S4Trnka4Ruzicka5n = 9Ruzicka took 5 of 9
S5Trnka4Ruzicka1n = 5Trnka took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTrnkaRuzickaT − RBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.843.0−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaRuzickaBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 275 vs 230 / 43851.6%52.5%142 / 275 vs 230 / 438Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaTrnka 2.10/Ruzicka 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka39211114113J. Ruzicka4411971162
WSep 3 · 14:35T. Trnka50118911113J. Ruzicka4371111592
LSep 1 · 16:35T. Trnka35981171J. Ruzicka4211119113
LJul 26 · 08:05T. Trnka2110740J. Ruzicka341211113
LJul 25 · 07:05T. Trnka31911831J. Ruzicka3911611113
LJun 27 · 10:35T. Trnka335111071J. Ruzicka4011612113
LJun 26 · 15:05T. Trnka351168101J. Ruzicka4281111123
WJun 20 · 10:35T. Trnka46119411113J. Ruzicka4661111992
LJun 9 · 15:05T. Trnka4111551192J. Ruzicka50911118113
WMay 12 · 16:05T. Trnka571281412113J. Ruzicka501011161032
T. Trnka10
WSep 20 · 07:05O. Polak1.5710770T. Trnka2.251211113LSep 20 · 06:35S. Vyskocil2.6311123113T. Trnka1.447101191WSep 17 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—1110118122T. Trnka—912711143LSep 17 · 20:35O. Stehlik1.501111113T. Trnka2.507860LSep 17 · 19:35T. Trnka2.001113111192J. Ruzicka1.73715413113LSep 17 · 18:05T. Bartik1.40111187113T. Trnka2.7597111192LSep 14 · 17:10T. Beran2.75811119113T. Trnka1.4011871172LSep 14 · 16:35T. Beran2.6311711123T. Trnka1.447118101LSep 14 · 15:35T. Trnka3.0011123772M. Kucera1.364101111113WSep 14 · 14:05T. Bartik1.408111110102T. Trnka2.75118712123
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 20 · 09:08S. Vyskocil1.7311116101J. Ruzicka2.0013911123LSep 20 · 07:35J. Ruzicka1.9111911962S. Vyskocil1.80811711113LSep 20 · 06:05O. Polak1.401111113J. Ruzicka2.757790WSep 19 · 13:40J. Jr2.50119881J. Ruzicka1.5071111113WSep 19 · 12:05R. Neterda2.206470J. Ruzicka1.611111113LSep 19 · 11:35J. Jr2.63511611123J. Ruzicka1.44118117102WSep 19 · 10:35J. Ruzicka1.331111113M. Flesar3.257290LSep 19 · 09:33J. Ruzicka1.6112118101D. Hons2.20101311123WSep 19 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.8311511113J. Lovl1.83911251WSep 19 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.3611116113M. Flesar3.00571181
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