TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Volodymyr Varchenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12141311113115––
Oleh Stopin
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:34 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeOleh Stopin to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Varchenko above · Oleh Stopin below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Oleh Stopin at 58.9%
80 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Varchenko 9–13 Oleh Stopin Volodymyr Varchenko has won 9 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:34What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stopin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-13 in 22
Stopin
Wrong
gap of 4 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varchenko 1137 vs Stopin 1185
Stopin
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varchenko 40% vs Stopin 20%
Varchenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varchenko 40% vs Stopin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varchenko -2 · Stopin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stopin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stopin form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarchenko 2.20 / Stopin 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Stopin)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13161245
Varchenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 16 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 14
Stopin1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite76% won 51 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it93% 26 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarchenko6wins
AwayStopin4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVarchenko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarchenko83.3%5 of 6
AwayStopin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varchenko6Stopin4n = 10Varchenko took 6 of 10
S2Varchenko5Stopin5n = 10split evenly
S3Varchenko4Stopin6n = 10Stopin took 6 of 10
S4Varchenko3Stopin3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarchenkoStopinV − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.135.6+0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarchenkoStopinBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 224 vs 145 / 27745.1%52.4%101 / 224 vs 145 / 277Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StopinVarchenko 2.20/Stopin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Stopin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 19 · 09:20V. Varchenko226880O. Stopin331111113
LSep 5 · 08:35V. Varchenko311110821O. Stopin4281211113
WAug 23 · 07:35V. Varchenko42114124113O. Stopin42611101142
WAug 16 · 10:05V. Varchenko50841213133O. Stopin5411111011112
WAug 2 · 08:20V. Varchenko4211128113O. Stopin378101181
WJul 31 · 14:30V. Varchenko331111113O. Stopin207850
LJul 15 · 13:00V. Varchenko2899100O. Stopin341111123
LJul 11 · 05:30V. Varchenko351011951O. Stopin4312911113
WApr 26 · 07:35V. Varchenko4111118113O. Stopin27941131
WMar 29 · 13:10V. Varchenko371115113O. Stopin2491320
V. Varchenko10
LSep 20 · 15:10V. Varchenko2.7511831142V. Kondratenko1.40311118113LSep 20 · 13:40V. Varchenko2.254450Y. Korotin1.57111163WSep 20 · 12:10V. Varchenko1.2511613113V. Mykhalchenko3.758111111LSep 20 · 10:40V. Varchenko1.57871151S. Kovalenko2.2511112113WSep 19 · 12:50V. Kucheriavyi1.6771040V. Varchenko2.101112113LSep 19 · 11:20V. Varchenko1.6111550D. Khavanskyi2.201311113LSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 07:20V. Stukalov2.38116913113V. Varchenko1.53911111152WSep 19 · 06:20V. Mykhalchenko3.2512520V. Varchenko1.331411113WSep 13 · 11:05V. Stukalov1.8361170V. Varchenko1.831113113
O. Stopin10
LSep 20 · 15:40O. Stopin2.7510750Y. Korotin1.401211113WSep 20 · 14:40O. Stopin1.6511102S. Kovalenko2.05480LSep 20 · 13:10O. Stopin3.001174111V. Kondratenko1.3671111133WSep 20 · 11:10O. Stopin1.501111113V. Mykhalchenko2.507360LSep 19 · 12:20O. Stopin2.10911116132D. Khavanskyi1.67113511153LSep 19 · 10:20V. Stukalov1.5711118133O. Stopin2.258811111WSep 19 · 09:20O. Stopin1.831111113V. Varchenko1.836880LSep 19 · 08:20V. Mykhalchenko3.001111113O. Stopin1.364580WSep 19 · 06:50O. Stopin2.631211113V. Kucheriavyi1.4410680WSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.