TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Martin Sobota
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 6–4 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:15What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Mandrysz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1350 vs Sobota 1305
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Sobota 20%
Mandrysz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Sobota 40%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -1 · Sobota -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.73 / Sobota 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Mandrysz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13161230
Mandrysz1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite57% won 70 of 124
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 46 of 64
Sobota2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 33 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back21% 7 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz6wins
AwaySobota4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz100%5 of 5
AwaySobota80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz5Sobota5n = 10split evenly
S2Mandrysz9Sobota1n = 10Mandrysz took 9 of 10
S3Mandrysz4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S4Mandrysz3Sobota4n = 7Sobota took 4 of 7
S5Mandrysz2Sobota1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszSobotaM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.8+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 443 vs 77 / 17650.3%43.8%223 / 443 vs 77 / 176Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.73/Sobota 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz50511911142M. Sobota54118118163
WSep 5 · 06:10F. Mandrysz5711121310113M. Sobota54810151292
LAug 8 · 17:14F. Mandrysz38991191M. Sobota3911116113
LAug 8 · 15:10F. Mandrysz32511881M. Sobota3811511113
WJul 11 · 10:10F. Mandrysz361411113M. Sobota2712780
WJul 4 · 05:40F. Mandrysz331111113M. Sobota207490
WJun 21 · 16:15F. Mandrysz4312119113M. Sobota361091161
WMay 10 · 16:35F. Mandrysz371111153M. Sobota2896130
WMay 10 · 13:40F. Mandrysz48611911113M. Sobota3811511742
LFeb 7 · 16:40F. Mandrysz35613791M. Sobota44111111113
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 20 · 08:45F. Mandrysz1.91814981J. Matus1.80111211113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143
M. Sobota10
LSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113WSep 20 · 05:45J. Sindler1.5781151192M. Sobota2.25118118113LSep 12 · 16:45P. Chvojka1.301114113M. Sobota3.4061290LSep 12 · 16:15M. Sobota2.3822140P. Chvojka1.531111163LSep 12 · 14:45J. Jnr1.83611911113M. Sobota1.8311711362LSep 12 · 14:15P. Sturma1.731111113M. Sobota2.009860WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261
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