TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT Cup
Played Sep 20Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8111412911811––
Jiri Matus
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 84 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 17–17 Jiri Matus Dead even across their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 8–2Head to head
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Mandrysz beat Matus 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 08:42What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-17 in 34
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1324 vs Matus 1361
Matus
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 60% vs Matus 40%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 50% vs Matus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -2 · Matus -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.91 / Matus 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13163552
Mandrysz1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog45% won 57 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back32% 26 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Matus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 89 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 62 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz8wins
AwayMatus2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz80%4 of 5
AwayMatus20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S2Mandrysz7Matus3n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S3Mandrysz7Matus3n = 10Mandrysz took 7 of 10
S4Mandrysz4Matus4n = 8split evenly
S5Mandrysz5Matus2n = 7Mandrysz took 5 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszMatusMandrysz − MatusBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match45.141.3+3.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime223 / 444 vs 224 / 43350.2%51.7%223 / 444 vs 224 / 433Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMandrysz 1.91/Matus 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 06:15F. Mandrysz591413115163J. Matus611611911142
WSep 10 · 06:40F. Mandrysz371112143J. Matus31910120
LSep 9 · 08:15F. Mandrysz3875111142J. Matus50111198113
WAug 2 · 17:10F. Mandrysz39311113113J. Matus4011551182
WAug 2 · 14:10F. Mandrysz44511116113J. Matus3811651152
WAug 1 · 12:15F. Mandrysz331111113J. Matus168620
WJul 26 · 16:15F. Mandrysz51911911113J. Matus3511211382
LJul 7 · 13:20F. Mandrysz4511117882J. Matus46581111113
WJul 7 · 11:45F. Mandrysz601371118113J. Matus591111131682
WJul 6 · 08:50F. Mandrysz45111211113J. Matus37614891
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 20 · 08:15F. Mandrysz1.735880M. Sobota2.001111113LSep 20 · 06:45J. Sindler1.6111116123F. Mandrysz2.209811101WSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 19 · 12:40F. Mandrysz2.00611139113P. Sturma1.73115111192WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143
J. Matus10
LSep 20 · 07:45J. Sindler1.7311414133J. Matus2.0061112111WSep 20 · 07:15M. Sobota1.80126871J. Matus1.91101111113LSep 20 · 06:15J. Matus1.731611911142F. Mandrysz2.001413115163WSep 17 · 08:45J. Matus1.8011811113P. Jokiel1.91411761LSep 17 · 08:10J. Sindler1.7311125113J. Matus2.006101151LSep 17 · 07:10J. Matus2.25451181P. Chlad1.5711115113WSep 17 · 05:40P. Jokiel1.5771350J. Matus2.251115113WSep 15 · 08:43J. Matus1.3311611113L. Snr3.25911821WSep 15 · 08:10L. Snr2.25611971J. Matus1.5711911113LSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143
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