TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13159369
Played Sep 19Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111151311911119
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 97 set 5, 11-9
97 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 32–28 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 28 of their 60 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Mandrysz beat Sturma 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 2.00 / Sturma 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sturma)+1.4pp
TT Cup · #13159369
Mandrysz2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Sturma1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite46% won 63 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it51% 34 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz4wins
AwaySturma6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz0%0 of 3
AwaySturma42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S2Mandrysz6Sturma4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S3Mandrysz6Sturma4n = 10Mandrysz took 6 of 10
S4Mandrysz5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszSturmaM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.339.2−0.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 440 vs 424 / 87050.2%48.7%221 / 440 vs 424 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaMandrysz 2.00/Sturma 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.1%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 19 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4291111113P. Sturma35119691
LSep 2 · 11:40F. Mandrysz4211511692P. Sturma46511811113
LAug 30 · 14:10F. Mandrysz32951171P. Sturma4011117113
LAug 30 · 13:10F. Mandrysz27111691P. Sturma4071111113
WAug 30 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4391112113P. Sturma351171071
LAug 20 · 12:40F. Mandrysz48118811102P. Sturma50711119123
WAug 20 · 12:10F. Mandrysz4181111113P. Sturma29115581
WAug 7 · 11:45F. Mandrysz4391111123P. Sturma361178101
LAug 4 · 09:24F. Mandrysz291011531P. Sturma4112711113
LAug 4 · 06:15F. Mandrysz36711991P. Sturma4011711113
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 11:10F. Mandrysz2.6381481262J. Jnr1.4411121110113LSep 19 · 09:40J. Sindler1.61111211113F. Mandrysz2.20614581LSep 10 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.259770R. Zajac3.751111113WSep 10 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.3061111113R. Zajac3.40118641WSep 10 · 06:40J. Matus1.61910120F. Mandrysz2.201112143WSep 10 · 06:10T. Slivka2.75115781F. Mandrysz1.4021111113WSep 9 · 08:50J. Sindler1.83311381F. Mandrysz1.8311511113LSep 9 · 08:15J. Matus1.80111198113F. Mandrysz1.9175111142LSep 9 · 07:15F. Mandrysz1.67112881A. Strelec2.1061111113
P. Sturma10
LSep 19 · 14:10J. Jnr2.2071411113P. Sturma1.611112891LSep 19 · 12:10P. Sturma1.91119691F. Mandrysz1.8091111113LSep 19 · 10:40J. Sindler1.731511133P. Sturma2.00137110WSep 19 · 10:10J. Jnr2.00119131182P. Sturma1.73611155113LSep 18 · 17:10P. Chvojka1.6111611133P. Sturma2.046112111WSep 18 · 16:10P. Sturma1.7381111113D. Muller2.00112761LSep 18 · 14:40P. Chvojka1.571111113P. Sturma2.258620WSep 18 · 14:10J. Jnr1.9111961192P. Sturma1.80911119113WSep 18 · 13:10J. Jnr1.80111381192P. Sturma1.91315117113WSep 18 · 12:10L. Snr1.80117841P. Sturma1.9181111113
Upcoming Matches
F. Mandrysz
Nothing scheduled
P. Sturma
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